Suns vs. Celtics Pick: Top Tips & Angles 3/14/24

Phoenix Suns (38-27 SU, 25-39 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (51-14 SU, 32-30 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 14th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Pho +5.5/Bos -5.5

Total: 228

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +188/-231

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Eric Gordon (Questionable) Knee
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee
• Josh Okogie (Out) Hip
• Nassir Little (Probable) Left Knee

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Out) Hamstring
• Jaylen Brown (Questionable) Back

At 7:30 ET, the Phoenix Suns travel to Boston to take on the Celtics at TD Garden. The Celtics (-231) are favored by 5.5 over the Suns (+188). The over/under line is set at 228.

This is a non-conference matchup between the 7th-ranked Western Conference Suns (38-27) and the top ranked Eastern Conference Celtics (51-14). The Celtics are currently on a three-game win streak.

Recent Form

Phoenix’s ATS losing streak is at three games, and they are 25-39 ATS for the season. On the road, their ATS record is 13-17, and they have covered the spread in two straight games.

As the underdog this season, the Suns are 6-11 straight-up and 7-10 vs. the spread. They are currently getting 5.5 points against the Celtics.

The Suns’ O/U record for the season is 28-36-1, and their games have averaged 231.3 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 228 is lower than their season average of 232.5.

In their last game, the Suns beat the Cavaliers by a score of 117-111. The O/U line for that game was 220.5, and Phoenix was favored by 7 points.

With a record of 38-27, the Suns are currently in 7th place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 22-19 and 7-8 in their division.

The Celtics have won three straight games as the favorite and are favored by 5.5 points today. This season, they have been favored in 62 of their 65 games and have a record of 49-13 in those games.

Boston’s ATS record as the favorite is 30-29, and they have covered the spread in three straight games. At home, they are 17-14 ATS and have an average scoring margin of +15.4 points per game.

In their last game, the Celtics defeated the Jazz by a score of 123-107. The O/U line for that game was 230, resulting in a push. Boston covered the spread as 6.5-point favorites.

This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 30-34-1, and their games have averaged 230.4 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 228.

Boston is the top team in the Eastern Conference with a record of 51-14. Against other teams in the East, they are 33-7 and 18-7 against the West. The Celtics have won seven straight games at home and are 29-3 overall.

The Historicals

The Celtics have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 3 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 215 points per game, leading a 1-4 over-under record.

Analysis

On offense, the Suns are 11th in the league, averaging 117 points per game. Their field goal percentage is 49%, which is 5th in the NBA. They are also 4th in true shooting percentage. In terms of pace, Phoenix is 15th in the league.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Suns are 10th in the NBA at 37%. However, they are just 21st in three-pointers made per game. In terms of free throws, Phoenix is 2nd in the league in made free throws per game.

So far this season, the Suns have outscored the NBA scoring average in 56.9% of their games. When it comes to assists, Phoenix is 13th in the league. In terms of offensive rebounds, they are 20th.

At this time, the Suns’ defense is positioned 16th in the NBA, permitting 114.3 points per game. On two point field goal attempts, the Suns’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.2% and allowing 36.3% from beyond the arc.

At home, the Celtics are averaging 123.4 points per game, which is 2nd in the NBA. Overall, they are 2nd in scoring at 120.8 points per game. In terms of three-point shooting, they lead the league in both three-point attempts and makes.

One area where the Celtics have struggled is getting to the free-throw line. They are 23rd in free-throw attempts and 18th in free-throw makes. In terms of pace, they are 18th in the league at 97.8 possessions per game.

So far, the Celtics have outscored the NBA scoring average in 72.3% of their games. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 10th overall at 48%. When it comes to two-point shooting, they are 3rd in the league at 57%.

So far, the Celtics’ defense is ranked 5th in the league at 109.6 points per contest. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Celtics defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 51.7% while allowing 34.5% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• Across the Suns’ last three road games, the team averaged 114 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last three home games, Boston has averaged 120 points per game while allowing 104. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• The last ten games that Phoenix was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 4-6 straight up.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Boston has an ATS mark of 8-2 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

These two teams played just five days ago in Phoenix, with the Celtics picking up a 10-point win. Now the situations have flipped, as the Suns are on an East Coast road trip and kicked things off with a nice win over the Cavs on Monday. Without Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown nursing a bad back, I see the Suns hanging around in this one. My pick is to take the Suns at +5.5.