Spurs vs. Timberwolves Best Bets: Expert NBA Picks & Predictions

San Antonio Spurs (16-15 SU, 16-15 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (16-14 SU, 13-17 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 29th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: FDSN

Point Spread: SA +6/Min -6

Total: 214.5

Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +186/-224

Notable Injuries

Spurs

• No Injuries Reported

Timberwolves

• Luka Garza (Out) Ankle
• Daishen Nix (Out) Ankle

The San Antonio Spurs (+186) travel to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-224) in a Western Conference matchup. The Timberwolves are favored by 6 points, and the over/under is set at 214.5. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

Minnesota (16-14) is currently 8th in the Western Conference and has won two straight games. San Antonio (16-15) is 9th in the West and 4th in the Southwest Division.

Recent Form

San Antonio improved to 16-15 on the season with a 96-87 road win over the Nets on Friday. The Spurs, who were favored by 8 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 183 points fell well short of the 212.5-point line.

San Antonio turned the game around with a 12-0 run, going from 22-11 to 34-11. They dominated the 2nd and 3rd quarters, outscoring Brooklyn 63-40, and entered the 4th quarter with a 74-62 lead.

With a 113-112 win over the Rockets on Friday, the Timberwolves improved to 16-14. Minnesota, who entered as +1 point underdogs, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points reached 225, surpassing the O/U line of 215.5 by 9.5 points.

Minnesota led 57-52 at halftime but fell behind after a 32-19 3rd quarter by Houston. The Rockets extended their lead with a 10-0 run, but the Timberwolves rallied, outscoring Houston 37-28 in the 4th quarter to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

Although the Spurs have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 4-1, the average scoring margin favors Minnesota, as they averaged 107 points per game while allowing 103. San Antonio and Minnesota averaged a combined 210 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their win over the Nets, the Spurs managed just 96 points, shooting 41% from the field. However, they connected on 12 threes, hitting 41.4% from beyond the arc.

Victor Wembanyama led the way with 19 points, 11 of which came in the 3rd quarter. Julian Champagnie added 18 points, hitting five threes at 71.4% and scoring 10 points in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Spurs were solid across the board, holding the Nets to just 87 points on 38% shooting. San Antonio gave up 22 points in the 1st quarter but limited Brooklyn to 19 in the 2nd and 21 in the 3rd before allowing 25 in the final period.

The Spurs also did well defending the three, with the Nets hitting just 12 threes at a 29% clip. San Antonio sent Brooklyn to the line only 8 times, where they made five free throws. The Spurs added 10 steals and eight blocks in the win.

The Timberwolves’ offense was firing from deep in their win over the Rockets, hitting 21 threes at a 48.8% clip. Overall, they shot 50.6% from the field.

Julius Randle led the way with 27 points and eight assists, knocking down five threes at 83.3%. Anthony Edwards added 24 points, 13 of which came in the 1st quarter, while Donte DiVincenzo hit six threes, finishing with 22 points, including 14 in the 2nd quarter.

The Timberwolves put together a strong defensive effort in the 1st quarter, holding the Rockets to just 21 points. However, they struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 31 and 32 points, respectively. Minnesota allowed 28 points in the 4th but managed to secure the win despite the defensive lapses.

From beyond the arc, the Timberwolves limited the Rockets to just 10 made threes on 33% shooting. Houston also went 12/19 from the free-throw line. Minnesota finished with 30 defensive rebounds while allowing 16 offensive boards. They also recorded nine steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• San Antonio has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 105 points per game while allowing 107. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Timberwolves offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 104. Minnesota posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 7-3 ATS.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 0-5 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 5-5.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Few would have expected that the Spurs and Wolves would have the same amount of wins as we approach the new year, but each side has 16 wins heading into tonight’s action. San Antonio has been getting excellent play from Victor Wembanyama, and I see his versatility causing problems for Rudy Gobert. I’m taking Spurs at +6.