Spurs vs. Pacers: Joe’s ATS NBA Betting Pick (Jan. 23)

San Antonio Spurs (19-22 SU, 20-21 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (24-19 SU, 22-20 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 23rd, 2:00 PM (ET)

Where: Accor Arena, None, Paris

TV: NBA

Point Spread: SA +3/Ind -3

Total: 229.5

Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +122/-145

Notable Injuries

Spurs

• Jeremy Sochan (Questionable) Back

Pacers

• James Wiseman (Out) Achilles
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles

The Pacers (-145) will host the Spurs (+122) in a non-conference matchup. Indiana is favored by 3 points, and the over/under is set at 229.5. The Pacers are 5th in the East and have won two straight games, while the Spurs have lost three straight and are 12th in the West.

This game will be played at Accor Arena in Paris, and tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 ET. NBA TV will have the television coverage.

Recent Form

The Spurs fell to 19-22 on the season after a 128-107 loss to the Heat on Sunday. San Antonio, who were +3.5 point underdogs, lost by 21 points. The total score of 235 points exceeded the over/under line of 219.5 by 15.5 points.

San Antonio started strong, leading 30-20 after the 1st quarter, but the Heat took control with an 11-0 run, pushing the score from 41-38 to 49-41. The Spurs managed just 11 points in the 2nd quarter and were outscored 46-27 in the 3rd, leaving them trailing 92-68 going into the 4th. They outscored Miami 39-36 in the final quarter, but it wasn’t enough to close the gap.

The Pacers improved to 24-19 on the season with a 115-102 win over the 76ers on Saturday. Indiana, playing at home, entered the game as a -10.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total score of 217 points fell short of the 224.5-point O/U line.

After the 76ers went on an 11-0 run, extending their lead from 61-57 to 72-57, the Pacers responded by outscoring Philadelphia 28-21 in the 3rd quarter and 26-22 in the 4th, closing out the game strong.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, San Antonio has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Pacers actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +5 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 237 points per game.

Analysis

In their 128-107 loss to the Heat, the Spurs shot 45.1% from the field, with a solid 37.5% from beyond the arc, hitting 15 threes. Devin Vassell led the way with 23 points, knocking down four threes at 40% efficiency.

Victor Wembanyama contributed 21 points and 10 rebounds, connecting on three threes at 37.5%. Vassell scored 11 points in the 3rd quarter, while Wembanyama added 11 in the 1st and seven more in the 4th.

Despite a strong start, the Spurs’ defense couldn’t hold up against the Heat, allowing 46 points in the 3rd quarter and 36 in the 4th, leading to a 128-107 loss. San Antonio gave up 18 three-pointers on 54% shooting from deep.

The Heat shot 52% overall, with 10 free throws on 10 attempts. The Spurs grabbed 31 defensive rebounds but allowed 12 offensive boards. They also recorded four steals and five blocks.

In their win over the 76ers, the Pacers shot 53% from the field but connected on just 32.4% of their three-point attempts, making 11 from deep. Pascal Siakam led the way with 21 points and eight rebounds, while Myles Turner added 18 points and 11 boards, hitting two threes at a 40% clip.

Siakam scored 10 points in the 4th quarter, and Ben Sheppard also added 6 of his 12 points late. Turner had 10 points in the 3rd, and Aaron Nesmith contributed 9 of his 12 points in the opening period.

Despite a tough 2nd quarter where they allowed 36 points, the Pacers’ defense held strong in the 3rd and 4th quarters, giving up just 21 and 22 points, respectively, to secure a win over the 76ers. Indiana limited Philadelphia to 42% shooting from the field.

The Pacers did an excellent job defending the three-point line, holding the 76ers to just 10 made threes on 29% shooting. Indiana also sent Philadelphia to the free-throw line 22 times, where they made 16. The Pacers finished with four steals and four blocked shots.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, San Antonio has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 110 points per game.
• Indiana has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 110 points per game while allowing 97. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 2-8. But their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
• As the betting favorite, the Pacers have an ATS record of 5-0 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight record was 5-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Getting Indiana at home at -3 is a steal and my favorite bet of the night in the NBA. San Antonio has really fallen apart after beating the Lakers on the 13th, being blown out in 3-straight games. Look for Indiana to take care of business at home and take them to cover.