Spurs vs. Mavericks ATS Pick: Can the Spurs Cover the Spread in Dallas?

San Antonio Spurs (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 16th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: NBA

Point Spread: SA +10.5/Dal -10.5

Total: 228

Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +388/-512

Notable Injuries

Spurs

• Tre Jones (Out) Ankle
• Jeremy Sochan (Out) Thumb

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee
• P.J. Washington (Doubtful) Knee

The Dallas Mavericks (-512) will host the San Antonio Spurs (+388) at 8:30 ET in a Western Southwest division matchup. The Mavericks (-10.5) are favored and have lost four straight games. The over/under line is 228.

This game will be played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas and can be seen on NBA TV. The Spurs are 6-7 and 3rd in the Southwest, while the Mavericks are 5-7 and 4th in the division.

Recent Form

The Spurs fell to 6-7 on the season after a 120-115 home loss to the Lakers on Friday. San Antonio, who entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 235 points exceeded the pre-game total of 228.

San Antonio started strong with an 11-0 run but couldn’t maintain their momentum. They were outscored 37-30 in the 2nd quarter, which proved costly. Despite winning the 3rd and 4th quarters, the Spurs couldn’t overcome a 93-86 deficit heading into the final period.

On Thursday, the Mavericks fell to 5-7 for the season after a 115-113 road loss to the Jazz. Dallas, who entered the game as 7.5-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 228, just under the 230-point line.

Dallas led 64-61 at halftime but struggled in the 3rd quarter, where Utah went on an 11-0 run and outscored the Mavs 38-21. Dallas made a push in the 4th, holding the Jazz to 16 points while scoring 28, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Mavericks have an average scoring margin of +14 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. In these contests, they averaged a combined 232 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In their 120-115 loss to the Lakers, the Spurs connected on 17 threes, shooting 37.8% from deep and 48.9% overall from the field. Victor Wembanyama led the way with 28 points and 14 rebounds, though he hit just four threes at a 30.8% rate.

Stephon Castle added 22 points, knocking down three threes at 75% efficiency. Devin Vassell also contributed three threes, finishing with 15 points and five assists.

The Spurs struggled defensively in the 2nd quarter, giving up 37 points, which contributed to their 120-115 loss to the Lakers. San Antonio allowed Los Angeles to shoot 50% from the field.

San Antonio had trouble defending the perimeter, as the Lakers hit 14 threes at a 45% clip. The Spurs sent the Lakers to the line 23 times, where they made 18 free throws.

In their 115-113 loss to the Jazz, the Mavericks shot 50.6% from the field but struggled from three-point range, hitting just 30.8% of their attempts. Luka Doncic led the way with 37 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds, connecting on four threes at the same 30.8% rate.

Naji Marshall added 19 points, including 10 in the 4th quarter, while Klay Thompson contributed 17 points, making five threes despite shooting 35.3% overall. Quentin Grimes chipped in 15 points, with eight coming in the opening period.

Defensively, the Mavericks struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, allowing 34 and 38 points, respectively, but they tightened up in the 4th, giving up just 16 points. Overall, they allowed the Jazz to shoot 50% from the field.

Dallas did a solid job defending the three, with Utah hitting 13 threes at a 38% clip. The Mavericks sent the Jazz to the line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws. Dallas also recorded 11 steals and ten blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, San Antonio has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 103 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Although Dallas has a straight-up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-3-1. The team averaged 114 points per game in these games.
• The last five games that San Antonio was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• The last three games that Dallas was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Mavs are coming off a bad loss to the Jazz on Thursday, they are still favored by -10.5 points on Saturday vs the Spurs. On the other hand, the Spurs played the Lakers tough last night, but they still took the loss. Even though this would appear to be a good opportunity for Dallas to get back on track with an easy win, I think they are in for a fight. I like the Spurs to cover at +10.5 on Saturday.