Spurs vs. Knicks Prediction, Picks & Odds: Christmas Day NBA Best Bet

Christmas Day Play

San Antonio at New York

NBA ratings are down, waaay down, and things aren’t going to get any better on Christmas, a day when they usually do well. The NFL has two games scheduled, which will drain away many sports fans (especially those who like to have little action on a game) who normally would have tuned in to the NBA.

For those of you who are planning on making some NBA bets on Christmas Day here are some basic stats.

In a data sample of approximately 100 games the home team has a 63-43 SU record, good for 59.4%.
These stats would make a small home Fav attractive, like GS laying only -3′, or a home dog like Phoenix getting +3 from Denver.

As sports bettors, the more important number is ATS.
Over the last 5 years home teams are 10-15 ATS, a 60% Fade.

Totals?
Well, let me ask you this – how would YOU like to be stuck working on Christmas Day? How much of an effort are you going to put in?
Overs have the edge, 16-9, a solid 64%. Seems not a lot of effort goes into playing defense, which makes sense as it’s harder to play defense than offense and people don’t want to work hard on Christmas Day!

So, with that edge in mind I took a look at the five games scheduled for Wednesday, trying to discern a matchup with a high percentage chance of going Over.

First, I turned to my personal handicapping methods. I’m using two systems for Over/Unders this season. One of them has a record of 9-19 on Overs (that’s a 67% fade! I’ve been focusing on the end of the football seasons, but I’m going to start using these NBA Fades when they pop up.) The other has a record of 6-5 not much of an edge. Doesn’t matter though, unfortunately nothing qualifies as a play on Christmas Day.

Next, I looked at line movements and saw something interesting – four of the five games have seen the opening number drop. Good news for a guy hunting for an Over.
(For years the Under was considered the right way to go on Christmas games, but that’s no longer true. Like all stats, over time, things even out.)

Next I looked at the full year Ov/Un records for the individual teams playing, hoping to see a game where both teams have an edge to the Over.
Here’s what I found:

NY 55.2% Over, SA 51.7
Minn 42.9, Dallas 55.2
Phil 46.2, Boston 41.4
LAL 41.4%, GS 42.9
Den 66.7% Phoenix 57.1

Based on those numbers you woul consider eliminating the Phil/Bos and LA/GS games (as all four teams are below 50% on Overs) and taking a closer look at Den/Phx, a game where both have a high percentage of playing to the Over.
But remember – this is all factored into the number the books put up.

Next, I looked at recent trends, comparing the Christmas day total with recent play by the teams.
Here’s what their O/U record would be comparing their last five games to their Christmas Day total:

SA/NY, opened 226, current 223′
SA 2 Ov/3 Un, NY 2/3

Min/Dal, opened 227 current 221′
Min 2 Ov/3 Un, Dal 3/2

Phil/Bos opened 226, current 222
Phil 3 Ov/2 Un, Bos 2 Ov, 2 Un, 1 Push

LAL/GS opened 235, current 225
LAL 2 Ov/3 Un, GS 2/3

Den/Phx opened 226, current 233
Den 3 Ov/2 Un, Phx 2/3

I was hoping for a game where both teams recent trends show them playing Over their Christmas day total but didn’t get one.

I want ACTION on Christmas Day.
And I don’t feel like waiting, I want it early.
After looking over the days slate I’m going to take a shot with the Knicks, opting for their team total Over rather than the game.

The books set the number at 116/116′. The 116 is -115, and the 116′ is -107.
In their last five games, the Knicks scored 116 or more in only two of five. But in their last 10, they scored 116 or more in 5 of 10.
Will home court advantage help me get the number I need?
Absolutely.
In their last 10 home games, New York has scored more than 116 points in EIGHT of ten.
Their average PPG is 121.
And that’s why I chose their team total Over for my Christmas morning play.

Checking into the Knicks history vs the Spurs would be a waste of time looking at irrelevant info as it’s their first meeting with a Spurs team that has Wembanyama at center.
The Spurs are a middle of the pack defense, surrendering 112.7 PPG.
In front of a raucous Christmas Day packed house full of celebrities and frenzied fans, the Knicks should be able to top that number by at least a bucket or two.

Christmas Day play:
NY Team Total Ov 116, -115

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-2
Review: took a loss on Phil -6
I checked the score at halftime, the 76ers are down by 11 points.
I go to the box score to look at the shooting percentages and I see that Philadelphia has a higher percentage on both FG and three pointers.
I don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out that 11 point deficit has to be something to do with the number of shots taken.
And I KNOW what the root cause of that is going to be – turnovers.
I checked the box score, and sure enough, Philadelphia has 12 turnovers. Twelve.
That’s six every quarter.
They’re averaging two turnovers every two minutes.
What is this, the WNBA??!!
As I’ve said many times, I’m not a fan of the NBA, I don’t watch it, and I don’t really know it very well, but it seems to me that 12 is a pretty high number.
Anyway, I took a loss on the pick. Embid played only 17 minutes before leaving with an injury. I don’t know if it would have changed the outcome, but he’s one of the best players in the league, so his absence certainly didn’t help.