San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU 43-39 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (54-28 SU 47-34-1 ATS) US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ 10:30 PM EST Monday May 3, 2010 on TNT
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Spurs +4 / Suns -4
Over/Under: 203.5
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Do the Spurs have another title run in them? They were the 7th seed and beat the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games in the 1st round and tonight are in Phoenix to take on the Suns. Phoenix took care of Portland in 6 games in their opening round series.
In San Antonio’s last 3 championship years they eliminated the Suns every times and to get another ring they will have to do so again. The Suns beat the Spurs 2 out of 3 games this season and were one of the best home teams this season while the Spurs were only 1 game above .500 on the road.
The running Suns vs. the half-court oriented and defensive Spurs is the match up in this series and the team that can execute and play their game will come out on top.
This season the Suns were 32-9 at home and the Spurs were 21-20 on the road.
One big question for the Suns is, will C Robin Lopez be able to play? He has missed the last couple weeks with a bad back, but has started to scrimmage again and he will be a game-time decision for tonight’s game. He is a legit defender and will match up against Tim Duncan if he can go, which will really help the Suns, as they are not a good defensive team.
Jason Richardson averaged almost 24 ppg and shot over 51% from 3-pt land in the 1st round win over Portland and when he scored at least 20 points this season the Suns were 29-4. The Spurs will have to play good perimeter D on him and not let him rain down from deep.
Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and George Hill will have to shoot the rock well to open up the Lane for Duncan to operate.
In their last game the Suns beat the Portland Blazers 99-90 on Thursday night. Jason Richardson was the high scorer for the Suns in the game going for 28 points on 10/16 shooting. For the game the Suns shot 35/74 for a FG% of 47.3%. On defense the Suns played solid holding the Blazers to 30/79 from the floor for a FG% of only 38%.
San Antonio also won on Thursday night beating the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 97-87. The high scorer for the Spurs in the game was Manu Ginobili going for 26 points on 7/19 shooting. For the game the Spurs shot 37/78 for a FG% of 47.4%. On D the Spurs allowed the Mavs to shoot 35/80 from the floor for a FG% of 43.8%.
This season the Suns were the highest scoring team in the league (110.2 ppg) and the Spurs ranked 15th (101.4 ppg). On defense the Spurs ranked 8th in the league in opponents’ points allowed (96.3 ppg) while the Suns only ranked 26th (105.3 ppg). The Spurs were a better team on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +3.3 rpg and the Suns were at +0.7 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Suns rank 4th (95.00) and the Spurs rank 6th (94.31).
San Antonio is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
San Antonio has an Under record of 6-0-1 in their last 7 games and an Under record of 13-3-2 in their last 18 games as a road underdog.
Phoenix is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Phoenix has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games and an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the Under record is 4-1.
On the injury front C Robin Lopez is Out for Phoenix while San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: We make the total as 212. With that being said, we believe that the OVER 203.5 is an excellent play tonight.
