San Antonio Spurs vs. Philadelphia 76ers Pick
San Antonio Spurs (27-21 SU, 28-19-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (31-17 SU, 23-25 ATS)
When: Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, PA
TV: FSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SA +4.5 / PHI -4.5
Total: 226.5
Power Rankings: Philadelphia +9
Takeaways from San Antonio and Philadelphia’s Most Recent Games
The Spurs come in off a stunning upset loss suffered on their own court on Sunday against the visiting Los Angeles Clippers. San Antonio closed as a 9.5-point favorite but instead fell by a score of 103-95. The loss ended a two-game Spurs winning streak.
The 76ers enter off an impressive win at home on Monday when they hosted the Houston Rockets and pummeled them. As a four-point favorite the Sixers were nowhere near concerned about failing to cover as they defeated the Rockets 121-93. Overall, the 76ers are 4-1 SU in their previous five outings.
How the Public is Betting the San Antonio-Philadelphia Game
At the time this article was written, no line movements have yet to take shape in either the Point Spread or Over/Under market.
College Basketball Pick: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
The Historicals
These two teams last met on December 17th, 2018 when the Spurs hosted the 76ers in San Antonio. The Spurs closed as a one-point favorite and covered with ease as they defeated Philadelphia 123-96.
Injury Concerns
There are two key injury concerns for Philadelphia as they enter into this affair. First, Point Guard Ben Simmons is listed as questionable for this contest as he battles an upper-respiratory infection. Furthermore, star Shooting Guard Jimmy Butler is also listed with a questionable tag due to a sore wrist. On the San Antonio side, there are no prevalent injury concerns heading into their clash with Philly.
Can San Antonio Dial Up From Downtown To Pull The Upset?
There is one thing that San Antonio does better than anyone else in the NBA: shoot the three-pointer. At the moment, the Spurs splash an incredible 40.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Moreover, the Spurs are ranked second in the league in free-throw shooting. Traditionally a fundamentally sound basketball organization, the Spurs have been uber-efficient from the charity stripe hitting 81.5% of their attempts. The Spurs should be able to make the most of their opportunities against a Philadelphia 76ers team that is 28th in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage at 77.8%.
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Can Philadelphia Muscle Out Another Win?
It is well documented that Philly can use home court to their advantage as they stand at 20-5 SU on their own hardwood while the Spurs sit at 9-14 SU outside of San Antonio. In addition to this angle, Philadelphia stands as one of the best rebounding teams in both aspects of the game. The Sixers stand fourth in both offensive and defensive rebounding as they produce 47.7 offensive boards per game and 43.1 defensive boards given away per contest. This is a good avenue for Philly to exploit against a San Antonio team that ranks 22nd in offensive rebounding (44.4 boards per game). In addition, Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked scoring offense (115.6 points per game) can also provide them leverage against a far more pedestrian San Antonio offense that generates a 17th-ranked 111.4 points per contest. The key is whether their defense that gives up a 21st-ranked 111.8 points per game can hinder scoring opportunities for San Antonio’s key offensive weapons, Forward LaMarcus Aldridge and Guard DeMar DeRozan.
Betting Trends
Overall, Philadelphia has gone 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings between these two teams. Moreover, in Philadelphia the Sixers are 8-3 in the last 11 contests that have taken place on their own court against the Spurs.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: San Antonio +4.5
What we have here is your quintessential buy-low and sell-high opportunity. The Spurs stock is through the floor after they were shocked in their own house on Sunday by a team they were expected by many to throttle. Contrarily, the Sixers’ stock is through the ceiling after they pummeled one of the best teams in the Western Conference, just two days ago. When you factor in these ingredients with San Antonio’s poor road record and Philadelphia’s astounding home court presence, the Spurs are in position here to be taken back an inflated number as a result of the perceived state of both teams in the present market. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Philadelphia has a lot of question marks surrounding some of their premium talent given injuries and the Spurs are also the better rested team of the two parties. As a result, not only can San Antonio cover here but they could likely win outright. Other sources would agree as some have the Spurs priced as a heavy favorite despite what the present line indicates. Thus, the current number warrants the play but it does not stop there. San Antonio may also be worth a look on the Money Line here at +165 as an upset could very well be looming.