San Antonio Spurs (46-29 SU 39-36 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (55-21 SU 32-42-2 ATS) STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA 3:30 PM EST Sunday April 4, 2010 on ABC
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Spurs +6 / Lakers -6
Over/Under: 194.5
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Today in a Western Conference match up that may be a preview of a 1st round playoff series the L.A. Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs. The Lakers have all but wrapped up the top seed in the West while the Spurs are tied with Portland for the 7th spot. If the Spurs cannot pass the Blazers in the few remaining games they will be facing the Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs, which is not a good match up for them to say the least.
The Lakers are coming off a win and are 7-3 in their last 10 games and the Spurs have won 2 in a row and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
The Lakers have beat the Spurs 4 straight at home and have won 4 of their last 5 against them overall.
This season the Lakers are a Western Conference best 33-5 at home and the Spurs are 18-18 on the road.
Many thought the Spurs would struggle when they lost PG Tony Parker, but since he has been out the Spurs have won 14 of their last 19 games.
One of the main reasons the Spurs are winning is the great play of Manu Ginobili (16.4 ppg). In starting for Parker Ginobili has averaged 25.1 ppg on 51.7% shooting in his last 14 games and he dropped a season high 43 in the win over Orlando on Friday night.
The Lakers have won 7 straight at the Staples Center and for the Spurs to snap that streak they will have to keep Pau Gasol (17.5 ppg), Ron Artest (11.2 ppg), and Lamar Odom (10.7 ppg) from having big offensive scoring games. Kobe Bryant (27.2 ppg) will get his points tonight, but the Spurs can’t let the other players beat them.
In their last game the Lakers beat the Utah Jazz 106-92 on Friday night. The high scorer in the game for L.A. was not Kobe, but Lamar Odom going for 26 points on 11/14 shooting and he also grabbed 10 rebounds. For the game the Lakers shot 35/81 for a FG% of 43.2%. On defense the Lakers allowed the Jazz to shoot 38/85 from the floor for a FG% of 44.7%.
The Spurs also won on Friday night in their last game looking impressive in beating the Orlando Magic 112-100. The high scorer for San Antonio in the game was Manu Ginobili going for 43 points on 13/25 shooting. For the game the Spurs shot well going 43/83 for a solid FG% of 51.8%. On D the Spurs allowed the Magic to shoot 39/80 for a FG% of 48.8%.
This season the Lakers rank 7th in the league in scoring (102.4 ppg) and the Spurs rank 14th (101.2 ppg). On defense the Spurs rank 7th in opponents’ points allowed (96.2 ppg) and the Lakers rank 9th (96.9 ppg). Both teams are solid on the boards, as the Spurs have a rebounding differential of +3.1 rpg and the Lakers are at +2.3 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Lakers rank 2nd (95.89) and the Spurs rank 8th (93.89).
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
San Antonio has an Under record of 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games and an Under record of 8-2-1 in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
L.A. is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.
L.A. has an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 home games and an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
In the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams in La La Land the total has gone Under every time.
On the injury front SF Luke Walton is day-to-day for L.A. and SG Manu Ginobili and SG Roger Mason are day-to-day for San Antonio.
Jason’s Pick: Look for a dogfight to ensue and the result to be the Lakers winning but the Spurs covering the point spread.