San Antonio at Los Angeles: ATS Pick and Betting Breakdown

San Antonio Spurs (18-19 SU, 19-18 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (20-16 SU, 18-18 ATS)

When: Monday, January 13th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: NBA

Point Spread: SA +3.5/LAL -3.5

Total: 222.5

Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +140/-166

Notable Injuries

Spurs

• Jeremy Sochan (Questionable) Back

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Foot
• LeBron James (Questionable) Illness
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) Hamstring
• Bronny James Jr. (Questionable) Illness

At 10:30 ET, the Lakers (-166) will host the Spurs (+140) at Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 222.5.

Los Angeles is currently 20-16 and 6th in the Western Conference, while San Antonio is 18-19 and 12th in the West. The Spurs have lost three straight games, while the Lakers have dropped two in a row.

Recent Form

The Spurs dropped to 18-19 on the season after a 121-105 loss to the Bucks on Wednesday. San Antonio entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 226, just under the 226.5 O/U line.

Milwaukee broke the game open with a 10-0 run early on, and a 34-19 second quarter put the Spurs in a hole. San Antonio fought back with a strong 3rd quarter, outscoring the Bucks 32-26, but couldn’t close the gap in the 4th, where they were outscored 30-27.

The Lakers fell to 20-16 on the season after a 118-97 road loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday. Entering the game as 6.5-point favorites, Los Angeles not only lost outright but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 215 points narrowly missed the O/U line of 218.

After leading 27-24 after the 1st quarter, the Lakers were outscored 31-23 in the 2nd. A pivotal 13-0 run by Dallas turned a 50-47 game into a 60-50 lead. The Mavericks continued to pull away, outscoring the Lakers 34-26 in the 3rd and 29-21 in the 4th.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, San Antonio has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Lakers actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +3 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 235 points in these games.

Analysis

In their loss to the Bucks, the Spurs shot just 36.8% from the field but connected on 18 threes at a 34.6% rate. Keldon Johnson led the way with 24 points and 11 rebounds, scoring 15 points in the 4th quarter.

Chris Paul added 18 points, hitting five threes at 83.3% efficiency, with 9 of his points coming in the 3rd quarter. Harrison Barnes contributed 12 of his 14 points in the 3rd as well.

Defensively, the Spurs struggled in the 2nd quarter, giving up 34 points, and allowed 121 points overall in their loss to the Bucks. San Antonio sent Milwaukee to the free-throw line 20 times, where they converted 14 attempts.

The Spurs had difficulty defending the three, as the Bucks hit 19 threes at a 45% clip. San Antonio finished with eight steals and five blocks in the game.

In their loss to the Mavericks, the Lakers managed just 97 points, shooting 45.3% from the field. Their three-point shooting was subpar, hitting 31.4% with 11 made threes.

Anthony Davis led the way with 21 points, 10 of which came in the 1st quarter. LeBron James added 18 points, while Austin Reaves contributed 15, knocking down four threes at 36.4%.

Defensively, the Lakers struggled on Tuesday, giving up 118 points to the Mavericks. Their toughest stretch came in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed 34 points. Overall, they gave up 31 points in the 2nd and 29 in the 4th, with their best defensive effort in the 1st, allowing 24 points.

The Lakers had a hard time defending the perimeter, as the Mavericks hit 18 threes on 47% shooting. Los Angeles sent Dallas to the line 14 times, where they made 10 free throws. The Lakers finished with 28 defensive rebounds while allowing 11 offensive boards and recorded seven steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Spurs have a record of 4-6 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last ten home games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 104 points per game.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, San Antonio has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Lakers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Spurs have had plenty of rest heading into Monday’s matchup vs the Lakers, having not played since being blown out by the Bucks last Wednesday. LA also hasn’t played since last Tuesday, when they struggled against the Mavericks. With the spread sitting at -3.5 in favor of the Lakers, I actually like the Spurs in this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Antonio wins outright, but I’m going to take them at +3.5.