San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Point Spread Pick

San Antonio Spurs (24-36 SU, 31-28-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (39-21 SU, 34-25-1 ATS)
When: Saturday February 26 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
TV: BSSW-SA

Point Spread: SAS +7.5/MIA -7.5(Opened at MIA -7.5 BetOnline)
Total: 224.5 (Opened at 224.5)
Money Line: San Antonio Spurs +256/Miami Heat -329
Power Rating: MIA -6

Probable Starting Lineups

San Antonio Spurs PG Dejounte Murray, SG Devin Vassell, SF Keldon Johnson, PF Doug McDermott, C Jakob Poeltl
Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Spurs Tre Jones: knee (PROBABLE) Romeo Langford: groin (QUESTIONABLE) Joshua Primo: wrist (QUESTIONABLE)

Heat Dewayne Dedmon: back (QUESTIONABLE) Tyler Herro: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Markieff Morris: neck (OUT) Victor Oladipo: knee (OUT)

The Miami Heat host the San Antonio Spurs in non-conference action. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET at FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Recent Form

The San Antonio Spurs come into this game with an overall record of 24-36, placing them 12nd in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, San Antonio has struggled in their 31 road contests, sitting at 13-18. Over their last five games, the Spurs have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, San Antonio is averaging 128.0 points per game, 15.0 points more than their season average of 112.6. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though San Antonio has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 123.0 points per game, up from the Spurs’ usual rate of 112.4. In the San Antonio Spurs’ most recent game, San Antonio took down Washington by a score of 157-153

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 39-21, placing them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 19-7. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 110.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 109.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 104.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.4. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down New York by a score of 115-100.

Individual Player Analysis

As San Antonio travels to take on the Miami Heat, the Spurs’ leading scorer is Dejounte Murray. Through 52 games, Murray is averaging 20 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 46.0% of his games. So far, the Heat are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 46.0% of their games, placing them 11th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 40 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 48.0% of his outings. On the season, the Spurs have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 48.98% of their games, giving them a rank of 15th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Miami Heat are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 17 of Miami’s 56 games, leading to a winning percentage of 82%. So far, the Spurs have played 7 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 7 times, by an average margin of -7.0 points.

The Historicals

Tonight’s matchup will be the second meeting of the season between Miami and San Antonio. Miami took game one by a score of 112-95.

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How the Public is Betting the Spurs vs Heat

61% are betting the Spurs against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 224

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In this matchup, look for the Heat to come away with a win that also covers the spread. So far, these two teams have preferred to play at opposing speeds, with San Antonio ranked 2nd at 93 field goal attempts per game and Miami at 28th with just 85. However, both units are below the league average in points in the paint. Look for this game to be decided by who can knock down their three-point attempts, which gives the Heat the large edge. I am taking Miami -7.