Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Best Bet

Sacramento Kings (33-25 SU, 29-29 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-17 SU, 30-28 ATS)

When: Friday, March 1st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +6.5/Min -6.5

Total: 223.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +203/-250

Notable Injuries

Kings

• De’Aaron Fox (Questionable) Knee
• Sasha Vezenkov (Out) Ankle

Timberwolves

• Kyle Anderson (Doubtful) Hamstring
• Anthony Edwards (Questionable) Ankle
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

At 8:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (-250) will host the Sacramento Kings (+203) in a Western Conference matchup. The Timberwolves are favored by 6.5 points and currently sit in 1st place in the West, while the Kings are 8th in the conference and have lost two straight.

This game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on NBCS. The over/under line for this game is currently set at 223.5 points.

Recent Form

Sacramento’s ATS record for the season is 29-29, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 18-14 ATS compared to 11-15 ATS at home.

As the underdog, the Kings have a record of 7-11 straight-up and 10-8 vs. the spread. Today, they are 6.5-point underdogs and have gone 18-14 vs. the spread on the road.

In the Western Conference, the Kings are currently in 8th place with a record of 33-25. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 22-16 and 7-6 against teams in the Pacific Division.

Sacramento’s O/U record for the season is 30-27-1, and 54 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 223.5. This season, their games have averaged 235.9 points.

In their last game, the Kings lost to the Nuggets by a score of 117-96. The O/U line for that game was 228, and Sacramento was getting 9.5 points going into the game.

The Timberwolves are favored by 6.5 points at home today and are looking to extend their winning streak to four games. In the Western Conference, Minnesota is in 1st place with a record of 42-17.

This season, the Timberwolves have been favored in 48 of their 59 games, going 36-12 in those games. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +9 points per game.

Minnesota’s ATS record for the season is 30-28, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games at home. Overall, they are 14-14 ATS at home.

In their most recent game, the Timberwolves defeated the Grizzlies by a score of 110-101. The O/U line for that game was 209 points, and Minnesota was favored by 13.5 points.

This season, the Timberwolves have an O/U record of 29-30. In their games, the average combined scoring total is 219.9 points, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 223.5.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Timberwolves hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 0 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 234 points in these games.

Analysis

So far this season, the Kings’ offense has been one of the most potent in the NBA, averaging 118.1 points per game (8th). However, their scoring has been slightly higher at home (121.6 PPG, 7th) compared to on the road (115.3 PPG, 15th).

In terms of pace, Sacramento is 10th in the league at 100.1 possessions per game. This has allowed them to get up a lot of three-point attempts, as they are 4th in the NBA in both three-point makes (14.7) and attempts (39.6) per game.

Overall, the Kings are shooting 48% from the field (12th) and have been efficient inside the arc, connecting on 57% of their two-point attempts (4th). However, they have struggled at the free-throw line, ranking 28th in both attempts (21.3) and makes (15.6) per game.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, the Kings is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 117.8 points per game (23rd). The Sacramento defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.3% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.9% of their field goal attempts vs. Sacramento.

This season, the Timberwolves are 19th in the NBA in scoring at 113.6 points per game. At home, they are averaging 112.0 points per game.

Minnesota is 8th in the league in field goal percentage at 48%. They are also 7th in true shooting percentage.

So far, the Timberwolves have outscored the NBA scoring average in 44.1% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 25th in the league at 97.4 possessions per game.

On defense, the Timberwolves come into the game ranked 1st in the league in points allowed at 106.3 per game. Over their last three games, the team is allowing 97.3 points per contest (12th). The Timberwolves defense is coming off a game in which they held the Grizzlies offense to just 49.4% shooting. Overall, they gave up 101 points to Memphis.

Betting Trends

• Although Sacramento has a straight up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 113 points per game in these games.
• Across their last five home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 124 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Kings have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 2-1.
• In their last five contests as the favorite, Minnesota has a poor record vs the spread going 2-3. But they still put together a straight up mark of 4-1.

Joe”s Pick To Cover The Spread

After falling to the Bucks last Friday, the Wolves have won three straight, but these wins came against the Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies. On the other side, the Kings’ tough stretch of games continues against the top team in the West. Look for Sacramento to hang tough in this one, and I like them to cover at +6.5.