Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Free Pick 1/31/24

Sacramento Kings (27-18 SU, 24-21 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (24-23 SU, 19-26 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 31st, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +1/Mia -1

Total: 229.5

Money Line: Kings -107/Heat -114

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Notable Injuries

Kings

• Sasha Vezenkov (Questionable) Ankle

Heat

• Duncan Robinson (Out) Concussion
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-114) will host the Sacramento Kings (-107) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are favored by 1 point, and the over/under line is set at 229.5.

Miami (24-23) has lost seven straight games and is currently 7th in the Eastern Conference. Sacramento (27-18) has won four straight games and is 5th in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

Sacramento is looking to extend their winning streak to five games today against the Heat. The Kings are currently 27-18 overall, which is good for 2nd place in the Pacific Division and 5th in the Western Conference.

In games against Western Conference opponents, the Kings are 18-13 compared to 9-5 in non-conference games. On the road, they are 13-10 and have won three straight games as the visiting team.

Sacramento’s ATS record on the road is 14-9, and they are 7-3 as underdogs. Today, they are getting 1 point against the Heat. As underdogs, the Kings have gone 4-6 straight-up and 7-3 ATS.

In their last game against the Grizzlies, the Kings won by a score of 103-94. The O/U line for that game was 223.5, and Sacramento was favored by 11 points. This improved their ATS record to 24-21 for the season.

The Kings have gone 2-0 on the under in their last two games, and their O/U record for the season is 21-23-1. This year, their games have averaged 235.8 points per game.

Miami is favored by 1 point at home today and has gone 19-26 ATS this season. In their last four games, they have failed to cover the spread and are 8-15 ATS at home.

The Heat’s O/U record for the season is 20-27, and 39 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s (229.5). On average, their games have scored 222.1 points.

Miami’s ATS losing streak is at seven games, and they are 11th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 24-23. In the East, they are 18-15 and are in 1st place in the Southeast Division.

In their last game, the Heat lost to the Suns by a score of 118-105. The O/U line for that game was 230 points, and Miami was favored by 2.5 points going into the game.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Kings have gone 3-2, but the Heat actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Miami has averaged 115 points per contest, while allowing 110. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 225 points per game.

Analysis

Heading into their matchup with the Heat, the Kings are 9th in the NBA in scoring at 118.4 points per game. However, they have been more effective at home, where they average 121.3 points compared to 115.6 on the road.

Sacramento’s offense has been reliant on the three-point shot this season, as they are 4th in the league in made threes at 15 per game. Overall, they are shooting 37% from beyond the arc.

When it comes to pace, the Kings are 9th in the NBA at 100.2 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 11th in the league at 48%.

Currently, the Kings’ defense holds the 19th rank in the NBA, allowing 117.5 points per game. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Kings are forcing 12.8 per game, which is 14th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 27th in blocked shots at 4.1 per game.

At home, the Heat are averaging 113.6 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 110.4 points per game. In terms of pace, Miami is 28th in the NBA.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Heat are 5th in three-point percentage at 37%. However, they are just 27th in field goal percentage overall. In terms of two-point shooting, Miami is 28th in the league.

So far this season, the Heat have scored below the NBA scoring average in 66% of their games. In their last ten games, Miami has scored below their season average in each contest. In terms of assists, they are 21st in the league.

So far this season, the Heat defense has been performing well, ranking 7th in the NBA at 111.7 points allowed per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Heat’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.6% and allowing 37.3% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Kings offense has averaged 119 points per game while allowing an average of 114. Sacramento posted an overall record of 3-0 while going 1-2 ATS.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 3-6-1 while averaging 103 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Kings have a straight up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 3-6-1 in their last ten games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The spread for this non-conference matchup sits at just -1 in favor of the Heat. At some point the Heat will are going to break out of their extended losing streak but I don’t see it happening today. I like the Kings on the money line. Double your bankroll with a 100% bonus by using one of our sportsbook promo codes!