Sacramento at San Antonio Betting Predictions & Picks | Nov 11

Sacramento Kings (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS)

When: Monday, November 11th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Frost Bank Center, TX, San Antonio

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac -1.5/SA +1.5

Total: 222

Money Line: Sacramento Kings -121/+102

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Malik Monk (Questionable) Leg
• Orlando Robinson (Out) Knee
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

Spurs

• Tre Jones (Out) Ankle
• Malaki Branham (Questionable) Ankle
• Jeremy Sochan (Out) Thumb

At 8:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (-121) will travel to San Antonio to take on the Spurs (+102) in a Western Conference matchup. The Kings are currently favored by 1.5 points and have a record of 6-4, while the Spurs are 4-6.

This game will be played at the Frost Bank Center and can be seen on NBCS. The over/under line for this game is 222 points.

Recent Form

The Kings improved to 6-4 on the season with a 127-118 win over the Suns on Sunday. Sacramento, favored by 1 point, covered the spread with the 9-point victory. The game’s total score of 245 points exceeded the O/U line of 230 by 15 points.

Sacramento led 36-31 after the 1st quarter and edged out Phoenix 24-22 in the 2nd. The Suns took control in the 3rd, outscoring the Kings 29-19. However, Sacramento rallied in the 4th, putting up 32 points to Phoenix’s 29 to secure the win.

The Spurs fell to 4-6 on the season after a 111-110 loss to the Jazz on Saturday. San Antonio, favored by 6.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 221 narrowly missed the O/U line of 221.5.

San Antonio went on a 10-0 run, turning a 75-69 deficit into a 79-75 lead. However, they couldn’t maintain the momentum, as Utah edged them 29-28 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Spurs have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Kings have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 128, compared to San Antonio, at 128. Over the course of these games, they averaged 252 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan’s 34 points led the Kings to a win over the Suns, with 16 of those coming in the 4th quarter and another 8 in overtime. De’Aaron Fox added 21 points, 8 of which came in the extra period, while Domantas Sabonis contributed 20 points and 12 rebounds.

The Kings shot 49% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 29.7% of their threes and making 11 in total. Sabonis was efficient, shooting 64.3%, while DeRozan connected on 56% of his shots.

Defensively, the Kings tightened up in the 2nd quarter, allowing just 22 points, while giving up 31 in the 1st and 29 in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Overall, they held the Suns to 41% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, Sacramento allowed 18 threes on 31% shooting. They sent the Suns to the line 15 times, where Phoenix made 12 free throws. The Kings also grabbed 49 defensive rebounds, gave up eight offensive boards, and recorded seven steals.

Victor Wembanyama knocked down six threes at a 66.7% clip, finishing with 24 points and 16 rebounds in the Spurs’ 111-110 loss to the Jazz. Stephon Castle added 23 points, including 10 in the 4th quarter, and Devin Vassell contributed 21 points, with ten coming in the 2nd quarter.

San Antonio hit 17 threes, shooting 36.2% from beyond the arc, while their overall field goal percentage was 44.7%. Wembanyama’s six threes were a key part of the Spurs’ offensive effort.

Defensively, the Spurs gave up 111 points to the Jazz, who shot 46% from the field. San Antonio allowed 25 points in the 1st quarter, 28 in the 2nd, and 29 in both the 3rd and 4th.

San Antonio did well in limiting Utah’s three-point shooting, allowing just ten threes on 30% shooting. The Jazz went 25/35 from the free-throw line. The Spurs finished with 31 defensive rebounds, gave up nine offensive boards, and recorded eight steals and ten blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Sacramento has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1 while averaging 120 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Spurs offense has averaged 103 points per game while allowing an average of 109. San Antonio posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 6-4 ATS.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Kings have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 7-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Spurs have been all over the place in November so far, kicking off the month with an impressive win over the Timberwolves, but they just lost to the lowly Jazz at home. Now, they have a chance to get back on track vs a 6-4 Kings squad. Even though it can be tough to predict which Spurs team is going to show up on any given night, I think this is a game they pick up a win. I’m taking the Spurs at +102.