Rockets vs. Warriors Game 4 Betting Preview: Spread & Prediction (April 28)

Houston Rockets (52-30 SU, 44-41 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 44-40 ATS)

When: Monday, April 28th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Hou +3.5/GS -3.5 (Bet on games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS!)

Total: 198.5

Money Line: Houston Rockets +143/-170

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Jock Landale (Probable) Knee
• Jae’Sean Tate (Out) Ankle

Warriors

• Jimmy Butler III (Questionable) Pelvis

At 10:00 ET on TNT, the Warriors (-170) host the Rockets (+143) in a Western Conference matchup. Golden State is favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under line is 198.5.

Golden State is 7th in the West and 3rd in the Pacific with a record of 48-34. Houston is 2nd in the West and 1st in the Southwest at 52-30.

Recent Form

Houston’s season record fell to 52-30 after a 104-93 road loss to Golden State on Saturday. The Rockets, who entered the game as +2 point underdogs, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 197, falling short of the 205.5 O/U line.

After leading 22-18 at the end of the 1st quarter, Houston was outscored in each of the following quarters. They trailed 28-27 in the 2nd and 23-22 in the 3rd, leaving them down 71-69 going into the 4th. The Warriors dominated the final quarter, outscoring the Rockets 35-22.

The Warriors improved to 48-34 on the season with a 104-93 win over the Rockets on Saturday. Golden State, favored by 2 points, covered the spread at home. The game’s total points of 197 fell short of the 205.5-point O/U line.

After trailing 22-18 after the 1st quarter, the Warriors edged the Rockets 28-27 in the 2nd and 23-22 in the 3rd. They dominated the 4th quarter, outscoring Houston 35-22 to seal the win.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Rockets and Warriors have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 0 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Golden State. The over-under record in these same games is 0-5, with the teams combining for an average of 196 points per game.

Analysis

Fred VanVleet led the Rockets with 17 points in their 104-93 loss to the Warriors, with 13 of those coming in the 1st quarter. He shot 35.7% from the field and 33.3% from three, hitting three triples. Alperen Sengün added 15 points, 8 of which came in the 3rd quarter, and Dillon Brooks contributed 13 points, hitting three threes at a 75% rate.

As a team, the Rockets shot 39.5% from the field and made 11 threes, shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc. Jabari Smith and Amen Thompson also reached double figures, with Smith scoring 6 of his 12 points in the 2nd quarter, while Thompson added 11 points, with five coming in the 2nd period.

The Rockets put together a strong defensive effort for most of the game, holding the Warriors to 104 points on 43% shooting. Houston was particularly effective in the 1st and 3rd quarters, where they allowed just 18 and 23 points, respectively. However, a 35-point 4th quarter from Golden State proved costly.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets limited the Warriors to 14 made threes on 31% shooting. Houston also sent Golden State to the line 15 times, where they made 12 free throws. The Rockets finished with 36 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards while also recording five steals and six blocks.

Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a win over the Rockets with 36 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds, hitting five threes at 38.5% efficiency. He scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter and 12 more in the 3rd. Buddy Hield also connected on five threes, finishing with 17 points, while Gary Payton II contributed 16 points, 11 of which came in the 4th quarter.

As a team, the Warriors made 14 threes, shooting 31.1% from beyond the arc and 43.3% overall from the field. Curry’s overall shooting percentage was 52.2% in the game.

The Warriors put on a strong defensive performance against the Rockets, holding them to 93 points on Saturday. Golden State gave up 22 points in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, with their worst defensive stretch coming in the 2nd quarter when they allowed 27 points.

Overall, the Warriors held the Rockets to 39% shooting, including 11 made threes. Houston shot 39% from three. The Rockets also went to the line 24 times, making 14 free throws. The Warriors finished with nine steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Houston has a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 111 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Golden State has an ATS record of 6-3-1 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 7-3 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Rockets have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• Against the spread, the Warriors have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

As expected, this first round of the playoffs has featured a lot of chippiness, and this Rockets and Warriors series is at the front and center of that physicality. Golden State has a chance to go up 3-1 as the series returns back to California. The Warriors are favored by -3.5, and even though Houston knows they are fighting for their playoff lives in this one, I expect Steph Curry and the Warriors to take care of business at home. I like the Warriors to cover.