Rockets vs. Nuggets Betting Preview and Expert Pick 1/15/25

Houston Rockets (26-12 SU, 22-16 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (24-15 SU, 19-19 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 15th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: SCHN

Point Spread: Hou -1.5/Den +1.5

Total: 231.5

Money Line: Houston Rockets -121/+100

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Jock Landale (Out) Personal
• Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand
• Tari Eason (Doubtful) Lower Leg

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 9:00 ET, the Nuggets will host the Rockets in a Western Conference matchup. Denver is currently favored by 1.5 points and has won four straight games. The over/under line is set at 231.5.

TV: SCHN

Recent Form

The Rockets improved to 26-12 on the season after a 120-118 win over the Grizzlies on Monday. Houston, playing at home, didn’t cover the spread as 2.5-point favorites. The game’s total of 238 points went over the 233.5-point line.

Houston went on a 10-0 run, turning an 18-14 deficit into a 24-18 lead. They trailed 92-87 going into the 4th quarter but outscored Memphis 33-26 in the final period to secure the win.

Denver improved to 24-15 on the season with a 118-99 road win over the Mavericks on Tuesday. The Nuggets, favored by 2.5 points, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total of 217 points fell short of the 235-point over/under line.

Denver took control early, outscoring Dallas 36-21 in the 1st quarter and 35-24 in the 2nd. A 12-0 run helped the Nuggets pull away, leading 91-67 going into the 4th quarter. Dallas outscored Denver 32-27 in the final period, but the Nuggets’ lead was too much to overcome.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-0-1 in favor of the Rockets. In these matchups, Houston has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 106. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 220 points per game.

Analysis

Jalen Green’s 42 points and five threes on 83.3% shooting from deep led the Rockets to a win over the Grizzlies, as he shot 72.2% from the field overall. Houston hit 16 threes at a 51.6% clip, finishing with a 50.6% field goal percentage in the game.

Amen Thompson added 19 points and 13 rebounds, scoring 12 points in the 4th quarter. Green was consistent throughout, scoring 10 or more points in every quarter.

Despite giving up 118 points, the Rockets managed to secure a win over the Grizzlies. Houston’s defense allowed 30 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters and 32 in the 3rd but tightened up in the 4th, giving up just 26 points to help seal the victory.

The Rockets allowed Memphis to shoot 53% from the field, including 43% from three, with the Grizzlies hitting 14 threes. Houston sent Memphis to the line 21 times, where they made 14 free throws. Defensively, the Rockets recorded 13 steals and eight blocks.

Jamal Murray was unstoppable in the Nuggets’ win over the Mavericks, pouring in 45 points and six assists while shooting 69.2% from the field and hitting five threes at a 55.6% clip. He scored 19 points in the 1st quarter and added 13 more in the 2nd.

As a team, Denver shot 51.8% from the field and connected on 13 threes, shooting 44.8% from beyond the arc. Michael Porter Jr. added 13 points, hitting three threes at a 75% rate, while Nikola Jokic contributed a 10-point, 14-rebound, 10-assist triple-double.

The Nuggets put on a defensive clinic against the Mavericks, holding them to just 99 points. Denver was particularly strong in the 1st and 3rd quarters, allowing only 21 and 22 points, respectively. Overall, they limited Dallas to 42% shooting from the field.

Denver’s perimeter defense was excellent, as they held the Mavericks to just 9 made threes on 28% shooting. The Nuggets also sent Dallas to the line 22 times, where they made 14 free throws. Denver gave up eight offensive rebounds while collecting nine steals and blocking seven shots.

Betting Trends

• Across the Rockets’ last ten road games, the team averaged 114 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 6-4 while going 7-3 straight-up.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Denver has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong straight-up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
• Across their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Rockets have an overall record of 3-0 while going 1-2 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Denver picked up a win over the Mavs last night, led by a huge night from Jamal Murray. But now, they are playing on back-to-back nights against a good Rockets squad. Houston has won 4 in a row and will be hungry to create even more separation between themselves and the Nuggets in the standings. I like Houston at -1.5 tonight.