Rockets vs Grizzlies Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds: Houston to Take Off?

by | Last updated Jan 30, 2025 | nba

Houston Rockets (32-14 SU, 27-19 ATS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (31-16 SU, 30-16 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 30th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: FedExForum, TN, Memphis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Hou +4.5/Mem -4.5

Total: 238

Money Line: Houston Rockets +150/-179

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Notable Injuries

Rockets

  • Steven Adams (Questionable) Ankle
  • Alperen Sengün (Questionable) Calf
  • Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand

Grizzlies

  • Marcus Smart (Out) Finger
  • Vince Williams Jr. (Out) Ankle
  • Cam Spencer (Out) Thumb

At 9:30 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies (-179) will host the Houston Rockets (+150) in a Western Southwest division matchup. The Grizzlies are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 238.

Both teams are playing well, as the Rockets have won four straight, and the Grizzlies are 31-16 and in third place in the Western Conference. This game will be played at FedExForum and can be seen on TNT.

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With a 100-96 win over the Hawks on Tuesday, the Rockets improved to 32-14 this season. Houston was favored by 5 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the game’s total of 196 points fell well short of the 228-point over/under line.

The Hawks went on a 14-0 run early, but Houston responded by winning the 2nd and 3rd quarters, outscoring Atlanta 60-46 during that stretch. The Rockets entered the 4th quarter with an 82-73 lead but were outscored 23-18 in the final period.

The Grizzlies dropped to 31-16 on the season following a 143-106 road loss to the Knicks on Monday. Memphis entered the game as +3.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread, losing by 37 points. The total score of 249 points exceeded the O/U line of 241.5 by 7.5 points.

A 12-0 run by the Knicks stretched their lead from 57-52 to 69-52, and Memphis couldn’t recover. After trailing 102-84 going into the 4th quarter, the Grizzlies were outscored 41-22 in the final period.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Houston has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Memphis. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +5 points per game in favor of the Rockets. In these contests, they averaged a combined 227 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Jalen Green’s 25 points and seven rebounds led the Rockets to a win over the Hawks, with 12 of his points coming in the 3rd quarter. Alperen Sengün added 18 points and 10 rebounds, scoring 6 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

Jae’Sean Tate was perfect from the field, contributing 16 points, including 8 in the 3rd quarter. The Rockets shot 46.8% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just seven threes at a 23.3% rate.

The Rockets put together a strong defensive performance, holding the Hawks to just 96 points in Tuesday’s win. After giving up 27 points in the 1st quarter, Houston tightened up, allowing only 23 points in each of the final three quarters.

Houston limited Atlanta to 40% shooting from the field and just 11 made threes on 23% shooting. The Rockets also sent the Hawks to the free-throw line 16 times, where they made 13. Houston finished with 12 steals and four blocks.

In their 143-106 loss to the Knicks, the Grizzlies hit nine threes, shooting 37.5% from deep. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the way, hitting three threes at a 75% clip and finishing with 21 points and four rebounds.

Desmond Bane added 16 points, while Ja Morant was held to 10 points on 38.5% shooting. The Grizzlies shot 45.1% from the field overall.

The Grizzlies struggled defensively against the Knicks, giving up 143 points on 51% shooting. After a decent 2nd quarter, where they allowed 26 points, things fell apart in the 3rd and 4th, where they conceded 42 and 41 points, respectively.

Memphis allowed 17 threes on 38% shooting from deep and sent the Knicks to the line 18 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Grizzlies finished with five steals and nine blocks.

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Betting Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 120 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
  • Memphis has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 124 points per game while allowing 123. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • Through their last five games as the underdog, the Rockets have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.
  • The last ten games that Memphis was favored, they have an ATS mark of 6-3-1 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This Rockets vs Grizzlies matchup is the best game of the day across the NBA, as these teams are 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference, respectively. Houston is +4.5 point underdogs despite having won 4 in a row. I see the absence of Marcus Smart and his defensive mindset playing a role in this one, as Houston’s guards can cause problems. I’m taking the Rockets to cover at +4.5.

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