Rockets vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks & Betting Preview (1/27/24)

Houston Rockets (30-14 SU, 26-18 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (32-14 SU, 18-27 ATS)

When: Monday, January 27th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Hou +6.5/Bos -6.5

Total: 222

Money Line: Houston Rockets +207/-249

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand
• Cam Whitmore (Questionable) Illness

Celtics

• Al Horford (Questionable) Toe
• Derrick White (Questionable) Shin

At 7:30 ET, the Rockets will take on the Celtics at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics are favored by 6.5 points and are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 32-14. The Rockets are 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 30-14 and have won two straight games.

This non-conference matchup can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

The Rockets improved to 30-14 on the season with a 135-131 win over the Cavaliers on Saturday. Houston, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, not only won outright but also covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 266, surpassing the O/U line of 230 by 36 points.

Houston built a commanding lead through the first three quarters, leading 101-84 heading into the 4th after winning each of the first three quarters. However, Cleveland made a strong push in the final quarter, outscoring the Rockets 47-34, but Houston held on for the win.

The Celtics improved to 32-14 this season with a 122-107 road win over the Mavericks on Saturday. Boston, favored by -8.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 229 points narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 226.5.

After trailing 29-25 in the 1st quarter, Boston took control by outscoring Dallas 34-20 in the 2nd. The Mavericks made an 11-0 run to close the gap to 59-57, but the Celtics responded by winning the 3rd quarter 37-27. Boston entered the 4th with a 96-76 lead, and despite losing the final quarter 31-26, they held on for the win.

The Historicals

The Celtics have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 18 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 224 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their win over the Cavaliers, the Rockets shot 54.9% from the field and hit 46.4% of their threes, making 13 from beyond the arc. Alperen Sengün and Jalen Green both scored 26 points, with Green knocking down five threes at a 45.5% clip.

Amen Thompson added 23 points and 14 rebounds, scoring 14 points in the 4th quarter. Fred VanVleet contributed 20 points, 8 of which came in the final period.

Despite a strong start, the Rockets’ defense struggled in the 4th quarter, giving up 47 points, but they still managed to secure a win. Overall, they allowed 131 points on 51% shooting from the Cavaliers, who also hit 17 threes at a 43% clip.

Houston sent Cleveland to the line 26 times, where they made 20 free throws. The Rockets grabbed 31 defensive rebounds, giving up 10 offensive boards, and recorded five steals and four blocks.

In their 122-107 win over the Mavericks, the Celtics connected on 20 three-pointers, shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc while finishing with an overall field goal percentage of 42.7%. Jayson Tatum led the way with 24 points despite shooting 36.4% from the field and added six rebounds and three assists.

Derrick White contributed 23 points, 16 of which came in the 3rd quarter, and Jaylen Brown added 22 points and eight rebounds. Tatum scored 8 points in the 4th quarter, while Jrue Holiday added 6 of his 17 points in the final period.

The Celtics held the Mavericks to 107 points on Saturday, allowing 29 in the 1st quarter but tightening up in the 2nd, where they gave up just 20. Boston allowed 27 points in the 3rd and 31 in the 4th but still came away with the win.

Boston limited Dallas to just eight made threes, with the Mavericks shooting 36% from deep. The Celtics gave up 28 free throws, with Dallas making 21. Boston finished with 34 defensive rebounds while allowing 13 offensive boards.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Houston has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1 while averaging 129 points per game.
• Through their last three home games, Boston has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 111 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Rockets have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Boston is about as tough as they come at home, but this is a good Rockets team that is also really scrappy. They are going to come out hungry to challenge the Celtics all game long. Look for this one to come down to the wire, and getting Houston at +6.5 is a steal.