Raptors vs. Bucks Point Spread Pick 1/17/23

Toronto Raptors (20-24 SU, 22-22-0 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (28-16 SU, 23-18-3 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 17th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee
TV: TNT

Point Spread: TOR +6/ MIL -6
Total: nan
Money Line: Toronto Raptors +199/ -245

Notable Injuries

Raptors

• Otto Porter Jr. (Out) Foot
• Fred VanVleet (Probable) Back

Bucks

• Jrue Holiday (Probable) Ankle
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Knee
• Joe Ingles (Out) Injury Management
• Serge Ibaka (Out) Personal
• Bobby Portis (Probable) Quad

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Toronto is 20-24 overall. When taking to the road, Toronto has a mark of 6-13 and a win percentage of 32%. Currently, the team is 11th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 22-22-0 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past five games and 4-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS.

Toronto will be looking to build on their most recent win over the Knicks. Fred VanVleet led the team to a win with his 33 points. The Raptors were 2 point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Milwaukee is 28-16 overall. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 17-5 and a win percentage of 77%. Currently, the team is 3rd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 23-18-3 vs. the spread. In Milwaukee’s last five games, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-1-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 6-3-1 ATS.

In their last game, Milwaukee defeated the Pacers (132-119) as 5-point favorites. Jrue Holiday led the team with 35 points on 68.4% shooting. The Bucks also covered the spread with the victory.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Bucks picked up the win 104-101 win over the Raptors. Heading into the game, Milwaukee was the 5.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Raptors. Toronto has averaged 105 points per game in these matchups while allowing 100. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 205 points per game.

Analysis

This season, Toronto is averaging just 112.0 points per game, which places them 24th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.4 possessions per game. Toronto’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 32.8% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 32.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 19th in the NBA. Defensively, the Raptors have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 107.1 points per game. So far, they have allowed a 3-point shooting percentage of 35.34%, placing them 17th in the NBA.

As the Raptors prepare for today’s game, Pascal Siakam is their leading scorer with an average of 25.6 points per game. This season, Siakam has a field goal percentage of 47.5%. The team’s second-leading scorer is OG Anunoby, who is averaging 17.9 points per game.

Coming into the game, Milwaukee’s offense is ranked just 21st in scoring at 112.2 points per game. This has come while being the 15th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Bucks are averaging 99.5 possessions per contest. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 5th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.2% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks allow an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

A major injury to note for today’s game is that Milwaukee will not have Giannis Antetokounmpo available, as he is already listed as out on the injury report. Bobby Portis will take on the role of the primary scorer for the team. This season, Portis is averaging 14.2 points per game for the Bucks.

Betting Trends

• The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games.
• The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Raptors had a big emotional overtime win last night in the Big Apple. They then had to travel to the Midwest to take on a Bucks team that also played last night (beat up Indy) but got to sleep in their own beds. The Raptors are receiving sharp action because they have covered a +5.5 in seven out of the last eight meetings. I’ll take my chances with laying the points here on Milwaukee, as an emotional overtime win in NY plus travel could make for tired legs.