Predictive Analysis: Suns vs Clippers, Jan 8 – Who Covers

Phoenix Suns (19-17 SU, 13-23 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (22-13 SU, 18-17 ATS)

When: Monday, January 8th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Pho +6.5/LAC -6.5

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +206/-254

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Eric Gordon (Questionable) Knee
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee
• Bol Bol (Out) Ankle
• Nassir Little (Out) Knee

Clippers

• Moussa Diabate (Out) Hand

Recent Form

As the Suns take on the Clippers, they are the 6.5-point underdogs and sit 9th in the West. Against the spread, Phoenix is 13-23 this season on average margins of +1.7 at home and +1.3 on the road. Out of their 36 games, the Suns have an OU record of 20-16.

So far, 22 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 226.5 points. Phoenix’s average over/under line for the season is also 229.2 points. Their average over/under record when the lines are lower than 226.5 is 11-2.

On the road, the Suns have put together an 8-6 record and have gone 6-8 ATS. As the underdog, Phoenix has failed to cover in two straight games and has gone 4-6 vs. the spread in these games for the season.

Against other teams in the Western Conference, the Suns are 12-13 compared to 7-4 in non-conference matchups. When facing teams on the road, the Suns have an over/under record of 20-16, and the OU result in their last game was an over as they lost to the Grizzlies 121-115 (OU 229.5).

With an overall record of 22-13, the Clippers will look to pick up a win as 6.5-point favorites over the Suns. If they are able to pull out the win, they will also cover the spread at home, as their average scoring margin stands at +7.5 points per game. Los Angeles’ home ATS record for the season is 10-8, and they have now covered the spread in two straight games at home.

Against other teams in the Western Conference, the Clippers are currently 17-10 for 4th place. When playing at home, the average scoring differential is +2.4 points per game, and they have put together three straight wins at home.

LA’s over/under record for the season is 14-21, and the under has come in each of their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 228.1 points compared to their average over/under line of 229.5.

So far, the Clippers have been the favorite in 28 of their 35 games, putting together a record of 22-6. When favored at home, their average scoring margin vs. the spread is +9.9 points per game.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Clippers have gone 3-2, but the Suns actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Phoenix has averaged 124 points per contest while allowing 118. Over the course of these games, they averaged 242 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

The Suns scored 115 points in their most recent game vs. the Grizzlies, shooting 45.1% from the field and hitting eight three-pointers. Kevin Durant is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 29.6 PPG, while Devin Booker is averaging 26.4 PPG.

This season, the Suns’ defense is the 14th ranked defense in the NBA at 14th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 63.9% of their games. On two-point field goal attempts, the Suns’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.2% and allowing 36.3% from beyond the arc.

In their last game vs. the Lakers, the Clippers put up 103 points. Overall, they shot 39.6% from the field and made 14 three-pointers. Paul George and Ivica Zubac were the Clippers’ leading scorers, each finishing with 22 points.

Not only do the Clippers’ overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 8th in the league in points allowed. Los Angeles has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 11th in the league over their last three games at 107.7 PPG allowed. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Clippers’ defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 52.9% while allowing 35.3% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Suns have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 112 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three home games, Los Angeles has averaged 115 points per game while allowing 107. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The last five games that Phoenix was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
• The Clippers have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both teams are looking to shake off losses last night, as the Clippers lost to the Lakers while the Suns dropped their game vs. Memphis. Even though this season hasn’t gone as expected for the Suns so far, I do like them as 6.5-point underdogs today in Los Angeles.