Trail Blazers vs. Kings Betting Prediction: SAC Should Cover at Home?

Portland Trail Blazers (32-41 SU, 41-32 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (35-37 SU, 30-41 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 27th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Por +5.5/Sac -5.5

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Portland Trail Blazers +179/-216

Notable Injuries

Trail Blazers

• Jerami Grant (Doubtful) Knee
• Deandre Ayton (Out) Calf
• Robert Williams III (Out) Knee
• Bryce McGowens (Out) Ribs
• Toumani Camara (Questionable) Foot

Kings

• Malik Monk (Questionable) Illness
• Jake LaRavia (Questionable) Thumb
• Devin Carter (Questionable) Illness

At 10:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (-216) will host the Portland Trail Blazers (+179) in a Western Conference matchup. Sacramento is favored by 5.5 points, and NBCS will have the TV coverage.

The Kings (35-37) have lost four straight and are currently 9th in the West. The Blazers (32-41) have lost two straight and are 12th in the conference.

Recent Form

Portland dropped to 32-41 on the season after a 122-111 home loss to the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Blazers, who were +6.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 233, just over the line of 229.

After a 33-33 tie in the 1st quarter, Portland struggled in the 2nd, scoring only 19 points to Cleveland’s 27. They bounced back in the 3rd, outscoring the Cavs 34-32, but couldn’t close the gap in the 4th, where they were outscored 30-25.

The Kings fell to 35-37 on the season after a 121-105 home loss to the Thunder on Tuesday. Sacramento entered the game as +8.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 226, just under the 228.5 O/U line.

After a slow start, the Kings were down 64-42 but went on a 16-0 run to cut the deficit to 68-64. They outscored the Thunder 39-25 in the 3rd quarter but couldn’t keep the momentum going in the 4th, where they were outscored 32-24.

The Historicals

Although the Trail Blazers have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Sacramento, as they averaged 110 points per game while allowing 106. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 216 points per game.

Analysis

In their 122-111 loss to the Cavaliers, the Trail Blazers shot 40% from the field, with a 32.7% mark from three-point range. They connected on 17 threes overall. Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan, and Scoot Henderson each scored 18 points, with Clingan shooting 60% and adding 12 rebounds.

Henderson scored 10 of his 18 points in the 4th quarter, while Matisse Thybulle added 9 of his 15 points in the 3rd. Deni Avdija contributed 17 points, and Toumani Camara added 13, with 7 points in the opening period.

Defensively, the Trail Blazers struggled against the Cavaliers, allowing 122 points on 54% shooting. Portland gave up 33 points in the 1st quarter and 32 in the 3rd, with Cleveland scoring at least 30 points in every quarter.

From beyond the arc, the Cavaliers hit 12 threes at a 44% clip. The Trail Blazers sent Cleveland to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. Portland finished with 26 defensive rebounds, nine steals, and three blocks.

In Tuesday’s loss to the Thunder, the Kings shot just 40.7% from the field, but their three-point shooting was a bright spot, as they connected on 23 threes at a 48.9% clip. Keegan Murray led the way, hitting nine threes at 69.2% and finishing with 28 points and six rebounds.

Zach LaVine added 19 points and seven assists, while Keon Ellis chipped in 12 points, knocking down four threes. Murray had a big 3rd quarter, scoring 16 of his 28 points in the period.

The Kings struggled defensively against the Thunder, giving up 121 points on 52% shooting. Sacramento allowed 31 points in the 1st quarter and 32 in the 4th, with their best defensive effort coming in the 3rd, where they gave up 25 points.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder hit 19 threes at a 59% clip. The Kings sent Oklahoma City to the line 20 times, where they made 16 free throws. Sacramento finished with 31 defensive rebounds, 10 steals, and seven blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Portland has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 115 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Although Sacramento has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-4. The team averaged 116 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Portland has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Going back to their previous three games as the favorite, Sacramento has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Trail Blazers still have a slim chance of sneaking into the 10 seed for the play-in tournament, as they are three games behind the Suns for the final spot. However, these chances took a big hit with their current 2-game losing streak. Now, they are +5.5. point underdogs tonight vs the Kings. Portland is dealing with some injuries heading into this one, and I see the Kings winning and covering.