Phoenix Suns (54-28 SU 47-34-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU 43-39 ATS) AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX 9:30 PM EST Friday May 7, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Suns +6.5 / Spurs -6.5
Over/Under: 205.5
Tonight in San Antonio the Spurs try to get back in this series hosting the Phoenix Suns, who they trail 2-0 in the Western Conference semifinals. The Spurs lost both games in Phoenix, as they could not stop the Suns from playing their game. In the first 2 games of the series the Suns scored at least 110 points in each and the Spurs’, whose strength is their D, could not keep the Suns from lighting up the scoreboard.
The Suns lead this best of 7 series 2-0.
This season the Spurs were 29-12 at home and 43-39 ATS and the Suns were 22-19 on the road and 47-34-1 ATS.
The Spurs have yet to lose at home this season beating the Dallas Mavericks 3-0 in their opening round series.
Only 14 times in the history of the NBA has a team come back to win a series after losing the first 2 games.
Even though the Spurs shot a better FG% in Game 2 they allowed the Suns to shoot 47.4% from beyond the 3-point arc. After Game 2 was tied at halftime and the Suns only had a 2-point lead after the 3rd quarter, but the Spurs were outscored by 6 points in the final period.
The Spurs have to do a better job on the boards, especially on the offensive end of the court in tonight’s game. In Game 2 the Suns out-rebounded the Spurs 49-37 and 18-7 on the offensive boards. San Antonio can’t give the Suns easy 2nd chance opportunities and if they do they will be down 3-0 in this series.
San Antonio shot over 50% from the field and they had good games from Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Richard Jefferson, but they have to get back to the team that during the regular season ranked 8th in the league in points allowed.
The Spurs shot well and held the Suns to only 8 points on the fast break, but they simply have to play better perimeter defense and hit the boards harder.
In Game 2 the Suns beat the Spurs 110-102 on Wednesday night. The high scorer for the Suns was Amare Stoudamire going for 23 points on 6/15 shooting and for the Spurs it was Tim Duncan going for 29 points on 12/20 shooting. For the game the Suns shot 36/85 from the floor for a FG% of 42.4% and the Spurs shot 40/79 for a FG% of 50.4%. The Spurs were out-rebounded by 12 boards, but had fewer turnovers (12-14).
This season the Suns were the highest scoring team in the league (110.2 ppg) and the Spurs ranked 15th (101.4 ppg). On defense the Spurs ranked 8th in the league in opponents’ points allowed (96.3 ppg) while the Suns only ranked 26th (105.3 ppg). The Spurs were a better team on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +3.3 rpg and the Suns were at +0.7 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Suns rank 4th (95.30) and the Spurs rank 6th (94.04).
Phoenix is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog, and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Phoenix has an Under record of 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games and an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
San Antonio is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
San Antonio has an Under record of 6-2-1 in their last 9 games and an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.
On the injury front C Robin Lopez is day-to-day for Phoenix while San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: The Spurs are a different monster at home and they will come out tonight and play well, especially on the defensive end of the court. San Antonio will get back in this series with a home win tonight and they will also cover the spread.