Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Recommended Bet

Phoenix Suns (21-21 SU, 20-20-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (27-13 SU, 20-19-1 ATS)
When: Wednesday, January 11th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: PHO +12/ DEN -12
Total: 228.5
Money Line: Phoenix Suns +550/ -800

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Jae Crowder (Out) Not Injury Related
• Chris Paul (Questionable) Hip
• Cameron Payne (Out) Foot
• Devin Booker (Out) Groin
• Deandre Ayton (Questionable) Ankle
• Landry Shamet (Questionable) Hip
• Cameron Johnson (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• Jeff Green (Out) Hand
• Bruce Brown (Probable) Thumb
• Zeke Nnaji (Probable) Knee
• Bones Hyland (Probable) Thigh
• Peyton Watson (Out) Adductor
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Phoenix is 21-21 overall. When taking to the road, Phoenix has a mark of 7-14 and a win percentage of 33%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 20-20-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 1-4 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS.

After their win against the Warriors, Phoenix will be looking to continue their momentum. Mikal Bridges had a big game, scoring 26 points to help lead the team to victory. As 12-point underdogs on the spread, the Suns were able to come away with an ATS win

Heading into the game, Denver is 27-13 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 17-3 and a win percentage of 85%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 20-19-1 vs. the spread. Denver will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Phoenix, as they are the winners of 3 straight games.

The Nuggets are looking to build on their recent 122-109 victory against the Lakers. Jamal Murray led the team with 34 points. When it came to the spread, Denver and the Lakers ended up with an ATS push.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up a 128-125 win over the Suns. However, heading into the game, Denver was favored to win by 4.0 points, giving the Suns and ATS victory. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Suns have averaged 122 points per game compared to 116 for Denver. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Phoenix. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 238 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, the Suns’ offense averages 113.0 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Phoenix has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.3 possessions per game. The Suns have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 33.8 attempts per game. Defensively, the Suns have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 107.33 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.88%.

A major injury to note for today’s game is that Phoenix will not have Devin Booker available as is already listed as out on the injury report. Mikal Bridges will take on the role of the primary scorer for the team. This season, Bridges is averaging 15.7 points per game for the Suns.

For the season, Denver has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 116.8 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 98.5 possessions per contest. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.6 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets allow an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Coming into today’s game, Nikola Jokic is the leading scorer for Denver at 25.0 points per game. This season, Jokic has a field goal percentage of 61.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jamal Murray, at 18.5 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Suns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Wednesday games.
• The Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
• The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I have to give it to Phoenix! They played lights out last night. However, it was an enigma and isn’t going to happen in a back-to-back with travel situation. I’m laying the wood with the Denver Nuggets at -12.