Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Total Pick | Feb 22nd

Phoenix Suns (33-22 SU, 23-31 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (32-23 SU, 29-26 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 22nd, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Pho +2.5/Dal -2.5 (You only have to lay -105 at BAS Sportsbook! Why not save $?)

Total: 244.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +121/-146

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Questionable) Hamstring
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Knee
• Maxi Kleber (Probable) Nose
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Nose
• Dereck Lively II (Probable) Nose

At 7:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-146) will host the Phoenix Suns (+121) at American Airlines Center. This Western Conference matchup will be broadcasted on TNT.

The Mavericks (-2.5) are currently on a six-game winning streak and are 7th in the West. The Suns (+2.5) are 5th in the conference and have won two straight.

Recent Form

In their last two games, the Suns have covered the spread as the underdog. Today, they are 2.5-point underdogs against the Mavericks. In their last game, they were favored by 13.5 points and won by a score of 116-100.

Phoenix’s ATS record for the season is 23-31, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 12-14 ATS, while going 11-17 ATS at home.

So far this season, the Suns have an O/U record of 27-28. In their games, the average over/under line is 232.5, which is lower than today’s line of 244.5. 50 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 244.5.

The Suns’ most recent win came against the Pistons, with a final score of 116-100. The O/U line for that game was 238 points. This win improved their overall record to 33-22, which is 5th in the Western Conference. In the Pacific Division, they are 2nd.

In non-conference games, the Suns are 14-7 compared to 19-15 against Western Conference opponents. On the road, they have a scoring differential of +3.3 points per game.

The Mavericks are currently on a six-game winning streak and are favored by 2.5 points against the Suns. This season, Dallas has been favored in 31 of their 55 games and has a record of 23-8 as the favorite.

Looking at their ATS record, the Mavericks are 29-26 for the season and have covered the spread in three straight games on the road. At home, their ATS record is 13-17.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are in 7th place with a record of 32-23. Within the Southwest Division, they are in 2nd place.

Dallas’ most recent win came against the Spurs, where they won by a score of 116-93. The O/U line for that game was 243 points, and the Mavericks were favored by 11.5 points.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 28-27, and their games have averaged 235.9 points per game. In non-conference games, their O/U record is 12-5, and today’s O/U line is 244.5 points.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Mavericks hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 234 points in these games.

Analysis

So far this season, the Suns have been one of the most efficient teams in the league, ranking 3rd in true shooting percentage. They are also 3rd in free throw attempts and 12th in scoring at 117.6 points per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, Phoenix is 7th in three-point percentage but just 26th in three-point attempts. Overall, they are 3rd in field goal percentage.

When playing on the road, the Suns are averaging 117.6 points per game, which is 8th in the league. In terms of pace, they are 15th at 98.5 possessions per game.

So far, the Suns’ defense is ranked 15th in the league at 114.3 points per contest. Phoenix struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Pistons, giving up 9. For the game, Detroit scored 100 points in the game.

At home, the Mavericks are averaging 120.4 points per game, which is 8th in the league. Overall, they are 7th in scoring at 118.7 points per game.

Dallas has been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, making an average of 15 threes per game (3rd). They are also 11th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%.

So far, the Mavericks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 58.2% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 11th in the league with an average of 99.8 possessions per game.

Defensively, the Mavericks come into today’s game ranked 19th in the NBA at 117.2 points per game allowed. However, they have shown signs of improvements lately, ranking 28th in the league over their last three games. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Mavericks are forcing 12 per game, which is 7th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 24th in blocked shots at 4.5 per game.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Phoenix has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 125 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Dallas has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 116 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 8-2.

Joe’s Total Pick

In a bunched-up Western Conference, the Mavericks are just one game back up of the Suns for the 5th seed in the West. Dallas has won six straight, and the Suns are on a two-game win streak of their own. But for this matchup, I’m looking at the over/under line and see the line of 244.5 sitting too high. Despite this game featuring some strong big-time scorers, I think this one finishes in a lower-scoring game than expected.

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