Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Odds & Picks 3/6/22

Phoenix Suns (51-12 SU, 34-29-0 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (39-25 SU, 28-36-0 ATS)

When: Sunday March 06 2022, 03:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV: ABC

Point Spread: PHX +8/ MIL -8 (Opened MIL -6.5 at MyBookie)

Total: 231.0 (Opened at 231.5 )

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +257/Milwaukee Bucks -322

Power Rating: MIL -8

Probable Starting Lineups

Phoenix Suns PG Cam Payne, SG Landry Shamet, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton

Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Key Injuries

Suns

No Reported Injuries

Bucks

Pat Connaughton: finger (OUT) George Hill: neck (OUT) Brook Lopez: back (OUT)

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 03:30 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum.

Recent Form

The Phoenix Suns come into this game with an overall record of 51-12, placing them 1st in the Western Conference. So far, Phoenix is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 23-5. Over their last five games, the Suns have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Phoenix’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Suns’ last five opponents are giving up 109.0 points per contest. The Suns have been picking up wins, while holding opponents to an average of 109.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 105.8. In the Phoenix Suns’ most recent game, Phoenix took down New York by a score of 115-114.

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 39-25, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 at home, holding a record of 22-12. The Bucks have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. During this stretch, Milwaukee is averaging 122.0 points per game, 8.0 points more than their season average of 113.8. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though the Bucks have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 117.0 points per game, up from Milwaukee’s usual rate of 110.2. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, Milwaukee took down Chicago by a score of 118-112.

Individual Player Analysis

As Phoenix travels to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, the Suns’ will be without their leading scorer, Devin Booker. In his place, the team will look to Deandre Ayton, who is averaging 16.3 points per game on 64% shooting from the field. Ayton will need to be on top of his game as Milwaukee is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 45.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring, averaging 29 points across his 53 games. Throughout the season, Antetokounmpo has outscored his season average in 45.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Antetokounmpo will need to do so against a Suns defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 28.57%. This figure is good for a rank of 0th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Phoenix Suns are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 24 of Phoenix’s 28 games, leading to a winning percentage of 92%. So far, the Milwaukee Bucks have played 29 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 29 times, by an average margin of -14.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks have met up for 1 game. Phoenix took game one by a score of 131-107.

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How the Public is Betting the Suns vs Bucks

67% are betting the Bucks against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 231.0

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Despite the Sun’s hot trends against the spread they come into the matchup versus the Bucks with a slate of injuries to key players. The loss of offensive production will impact the outcome of this game. Phoenix will look to Ayton to pick up the slack in the paint where Milwaukee is 4th best in the league defending. I like the Bucks in this matchup to cover the spread.