Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat Predictions 3/9/22

Phoenix Suns (52-13 SU, 34-31-0 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-22 SU, 39-26-1 ATS)
When: Wednesday March 09 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
TV: BSAZ

Point Spread: PHX +8.5/MIA -8.5 (Opened MIA -8.5 at Bookmaker)
Total: 217.5 (Opened at 219.5)
Money Line: Atlanta 301/Miami -387
Power Rating:

Probable Starting Lineups

Phoenix Suns PG Cam Payne, SG Devin Booker Q, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton
Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns Cameron Johnson: Quadricep (QUESTIONABLE) Devin Booker: Illness (OUT) Chris Paul: Thumb (OUT) Dario Saric: Knee (OUT) Frank Kaminsky: Knee (OUT)

Miami Heat Caleb Martin: Achilles (QUESTIONABLE) Markieff Morris: Neck (OUT)

The Miami Heat host the Phoenix Suns in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:30 PM ET at the FTX Arena.

Recent Form

The Phoenix Suns come into this game with an overall record of 52-13, placing them 1st in the Western Conference. So far, Phoenix is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 24-6. Over their last five games, the Suns have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Phoenix’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Suns’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though Phoenix has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 111.0 points per game, up from the Suns’ usual rate of 106.1. In the Phoenix Suns’ most recent game, Phoenix took down Orlando by a score of 102-99

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 44-22, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 23-7. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 113.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 111.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 103.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.6. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Houston by a score of 123-106.

Individual Player Analysis

As Phoenix travels to take on the Miami Heat, the Suns’ will look to Deandrea Ayton to pick up the offensive slack. So far, Ayton is averaging 16.7 points on 64% shooting from the field. As he gets set to take on the Heat, he could be in line for a big game as Miami is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.92% of their games. This figure places them 20nd among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 47 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 47.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Butler will need to do so against a Suns defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 42.31%. This figure is good for a rank of 8th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Suns come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.8 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Phoenix is winning at a rate of 39%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 11.0 points. On the other side, the Heat hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 28 games as the better defensive team, picking up 23 wins (82%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat have met up for 1 game. Miami took game one by a score of 123-100.

How the Public is Betting the Suns vs Heat

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 217.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Once again, the Phoenix Suns will be looking to pick up a win without their top players in Devin Booker and Chris Paul. With these injuries, the ATS line sits 8.5 points in favor of a Miami team who is 17-13 vs the spread at home. This includes ratting off 5 straight ATS wins. I see this streak continue to 6 games, as a depleted Suns squad won’t have enough offensive firepower to take down a Miami team who takes pride in playing strong defense.