Pelicans vs. Nuggets Point Spread, Analysis, Free Pick

New Orleans Pelicans (26-25 SU, 24-27-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (34-16 SU, 25-24-1 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 31st, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: TNT

Point Spread: NO +8/Den -8
Total: 234
Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +254/-332

Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• Zion Williamson (Out) Hamstring
• Dyson Daniels (Out) Ankle
• EJ Liddell (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Injury Management
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg
• Jack White (Out) Adductor

Recent Form

Heading into the game, New Orleans is 26-25 overall. When taking to the road, New Orleans has a mark of 9-16 and a win percentage of 36%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 24-27-0 vs. the spread. New Orleans travels to take on the Nuggets, hoping to avoid their 9th straight loss.

In their most recent game, New Orleans was unable to come away with a victory against the Bucks, losing by a score of 135-110. Despite Jose Alvarado leading the team with 18 points, the Pelicans were unable to overcome their status as 10-point underdogs. The Pelicans also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Denver is 34-16 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 22-4 and a win percentage of 85%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 25-24-1 vs the spread. The Nuggets need a win in today’s matchup vs. New Orleans to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

Denver most recently lost to the 76ers by a score of 126-119. The team high 24 points from Nikola Jokic was not enough to come home with the win. The Nuggets were 3-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Pelicans picked up the 121-106 win over the Nuggets. The Pelicans margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as a 2.0-point favorite. So far, the two teams have split their season series, with each team at 1-1. The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between the Pelicans and Nuggets, with just 1 point per game separating the teams. New Orleans has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. New Orleans and Denver averaged a combined 225 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-3-1.

Analysis

This season, New Orleans is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 115.0 points per game. So far, the Pelicans are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 100.5 possessions per game. New Orleans comes into the game ranked just 27th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.7% of their shots from deep, which places them 24th in the NBA. On defense, the Pelicans are allowing an average of 110.28 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.48% on their looks from outside vs New Orleans. This figure places them 26th in 3-point shooting defense.

Heading into today’s game, New Orleans will need a strong offensive effort from CJ McCollum and the team’s supporting cast as Zion Williamson won’t be available vs Denver. So far, Williamson is averaging 26.0 points per game. McCollum leads the Pelicans at 21.3 points per contest.

This year, Denver is the 22nd-ranked scoring unit in the NBA at 116.5 points per game. Their strong production has come despite being one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA at just 98.0 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.8 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Heading into this matchup, Denver is in jeopardy of not having Jamal Murray in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 19.1 points per game. So far, Nikola Jokic leads the team in scoring and is averaging 25.1 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
• Denver is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Pelicans get instant added line value as a nationally televised underdog playing in the late bailout game slot. These teams matchup well too. I’m betting the Pels plus the points!