Pelicans vs. Kings: Total Prediction for December 4th

New Orleans Pelicans (11-10 SU, 12-9 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS)

When: Monday, December 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: TNT

Point Spread: NO +4/Sac -4

Total: 235

Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +147/-178

Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• Larry Nance Jr. (Out) Rib
• Matt Ryan (Out) Calf

Kings

• Alex Len (Out) Ankle
• Chris Duarte (Questionable) Knee

Recent Form

When the Pelicans take on the Kings, they’ll be looking to add to their record above .500 of 11-10. So far this season, the Pelicans are 3-6 on the road and 8-4 at home.

In non-conference play, the Kings are 1-0 and have gone 10-7 against other Western Conference teams. Overall, they are 11-7 and have gone 3-2 in their last five games.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Pelicans. In these matchups, New Orleans has averaged 118 points per game while allowing 110. In these contests, they averaged a combined 228 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

The Pelicans offense is coming off a game where they scored 118 points against the Bulls. They posted a field goal percentage of 50% and connected on eight threes. Pelicans have been good on the offensive glass this season, pulling down 11 offensive rebounds per game. Their three-point percentage this season is 35% while ranking 15th in terms of pace.

Coming into the game, the Pelicans defense has held opposing teams to fewer points than the league average in 38.1% of their games. Currently, they are 16th in the NBA at 113.2 points per game allowed.

New Orleans struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Bulls, giving up 13. For the game, Chicago scored 124 points in the game.

The Kings recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 123 points against the Nuggets. This output exceeded their season average of 116.5 points per game. In terms of offense, the Kings have a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, putting them 20th in the NBA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 19th in percentage and 5th in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Kings’ defense is positioned 21st in the NBA, permitting 116.7 points per game.

The Sacramento defense has allowed opponents to shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 49.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Sacramento.

Betting Trends

• Although New Orleans has a straight-up record of 0-3 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 0-3. The team averaged 110 points per game in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Sacramento has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Pelicans have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.
• Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Kings have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into the game, the over/under line is sitting at 235, and the Kings are coming in as 4-point favorites. The way I’m playing this one is to take the over. I don’t see either side playing a whole lot of defense, and I like the over at 235. 

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