Pelicans vs. Heat Pick & Predictions | March 22/24

New Orleans Pelicans (42-27 SU, 38-30 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (38-31 SU, 32-34 ATS)

When: Friday, March 22nd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: NBA

Point Spread: NO +3.5/Mia -3.5

Total: 205.5

Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +138/-165

Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• Brandon Ingram (Questionable) Knee
• Dyson Daniels (Out) Knee

Heat

• Kevin Love (Out) Heel
• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Bam Adebayo (Questionable) Back
• Duncan Robinson (Out) Back
• Tyler Herro (Out) Foot

At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-165) will host the New Orleans Pelicans (+138) in a non-conference matchup. Miami (-3.5) is currently 7th in the Eastern Conference, while New Orleans (42-27) is 5th in the West.

The over/under line for this game is 205.5. NBA TV will televise the game, which will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Recent Form

The Pelicans are 13-12 as underdogs this season and have an ATS record of 15-10 as the underdog. Today, they are getting 3.5 points against the Heat.

In Pelicans games this season, the average over/under line is 228.6, which is higher than today’s line of 205.5. New Orleans’ O/U record for the season is 30-39.

New Orleans is coming off a 121-106 loss to the Magic. The O/U line for that game was 207.5, and the Pelicans were favored by 2.5 points going into the game.

This season, the Pelicans have an average scoring differential of +4.2 points per game on the road. Their road record is 22-14, and they are 19-16 ATS on the road.

In the Western Conference standings, the Pelicans are currently in 5th place with a record of 42-27. Against the West, they are 26-18 compared to 16-9 against the East.

Miami is favored by 3.5 points in today’s game against the Pelicans. The Heat have won their last two games as the favorite and are 27-11 in games where they are favored. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +2.8 points per game.

Against the spread, Miami is 32-34 for the season and has gone 12-20 ATS at home. Currently, they have lost four straight games against the spread at home.

In their most recent game, the Heat beat the Cavaliers by a score of 107-104. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game and improved their record to 38-31.

This season, Miami has an O/U record of 25-44 and their games have averaged 218.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 205.5 is lower than all of their previous games.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are currently in 7th place with a record of 38-31. Against the East, they are 26-18 and 11-3 against their division.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Heat have averaged 111 points per game compared to 96 for New Orleans. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Miami. Over the course of these games, they averaged 207 points per game, leading a 1-3-1 over-under record.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Pelicans are 13th in the league at 115.8 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 115.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, New Orleans is 8th in the NBA at 48%. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 8th in the league at 37%.

So far, the Pelicans have outscored the NBA scoring average in 53.6% of their games. When it comes to pace, New Orleans is 17th in the league at 97.6 possessions per game. In terms of free throws, they are 13th in the league with 17.8 made free throws per game.

When it comes to assists, the Pelicans are 11th in the league at 27.2 per game. In terms of offensive rebounds, they are 14th in the NBA with 10.7 per game. Overall, New Orleans is 13th in the league in scoring.

Currently, the Pelicans’ defense holds the 8th rank in the NBA, allowing 110.9 points per game. New Orleans’ defense is currently forcing 12.6 turnovers per game, which is 16th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 17th in blocked shots, with an average of 4.9 rejections per game.

At home, the Heat are averaging 112.7 points per game, which is 22nd in the NBA. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 109.7 points per game. In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the league.

When it comes to shooting, the Heat are 23rd in field goal percentage at 46%. However, they are 10th in three-point shooting at 37%. In terms of free throws, Miami is 10th in makes and 13th in attempts.

So far this season, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.2% of their games. In terms of assists, Miami is 22nd in the league, averaging 25.6 per game.

At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 4th in the NBA, permitting 109.2 points per game. Most recently, the Heat’s defense put together a solid performance, giving up just 104 points to the Cavaliers.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, New Orleans has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• In their last five home games, Miami has averaged 102 points per game while allowing 101. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Pelicans have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• The last ten games that Miami was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-4-1 while going 9-1 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

As the Heat look to keep pace with the Pacers and overtake them for the 6th seed in the East, they will need every win they can get. Look for Jimmy Butler and co. to put together a big game today vs the Pelicans. My pick is to take the Heat at -3.5.