Pacers vs. Heat Prediction: RBD’s Over Pick Based on a 69% Fade Trend

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-2
Review:
It was Christmas Day.
I had the New York Knicks team total Over 116.
They scored 117.
Merry Christmas to me.
And all who followed the pick
NEXT!

And next would be . . .
Today, January 2, 4:30 PST.
Indiana at Miami.
The game opened at 227′.
It’s now down to 223′.
And this is good news for me because I’m taking the Over.
Why?
My H/C (Hot/Cold) Trend Reversal System says take the Under.
The record on these is 8-18, a 69% Fade.

Digging deeper into my charts for a subsystem to see how each of these teams have performed in this spot (if they’ve qualified this year) I see that Indiana qualified back on November 6th against Orlando.
The total was 226.
The game landed on 229, a win for the Fade.
These same two teams qualified when they played each other on Sunday, November 17th.
The total was 227′.
The game landed on 229, a win for the Fade.
In this play, the individual team records are:
Miami 0-1, Indiana 0-2.
And as always I’m sticking with what works until it doesn’t.

Let’s look at some other stats/reasons for looking at the Over tonight.

This is the third meeting between these two teams this season.
The previous two games saw 229 and 235 points scored, both more than I’ll need tonight.

Indiana is a money maker on Overs this year at 20-13, 60%.
Miami is also profitable on the Over at 17-14.

Recent play shows Indiana has scored more than 224 points in four of their last five games.
Miami’s gone Over 223 in two of their last five.

Indiana’s PPG numbers are 114.6 scored versus 116.9 surrendered, averaging about seven points more than I need tonight.
Miami scores 111 and gives up 108, averaging four points fewer than I need tonight.

Key Personnel issue:
As always with any Miami game the question is – Butler.
Will he play, or won’t he?
If he does play, is he going to have his head in the game, or is he going to be petulant because he didn’t get the trade that he’s been angling for?

He played yesterday, January 1st, but sat out five games before that with a “stomach illness.”
(Read that as he can’t stomach playing for the Heat anymore and wants out of my Miami.)

In the Heat’s New Year’s game he played 25 minutes but only took seven shots, for only nine points, and head coach Eric Spoelstra pulled him early in the 4th quarter because he was a non-participant.

To hit my 224 tonight, he’s going to have to play better. Or, preferably from my point of view (a “betting on the Over” point of view), head coach Spoelstra will sit him.
Yes, he’s their best player, but if he’s slacking on the court and doesn’t want to be there, he’s a detriment to the team (and the scoring I need) and belongs on the bench.

Miami boss Pat Riley said Butler’s not going anywhere, but he’ll have no choice but to move the disgruntled player if Butler forces his hand by putting in zero effort when he’s on the floor.
In fact, there’s talk this morning about a three-team blockbuster trade with the Heat, the Nuggets, and the Bulls. Likely, it won’t happen before game time, but I hope it does; I think it’ll give a lift to the team. Nobody wants to play with a guy who doesn’t want to be their teammate and at this point, Butler’s just going to be a drag on the team until he gets what he wants.

When to Buy Recommendation
The line’s dropping, as I said.
I think as bettors review today’s NBA card and factor in the Butler situation, money will continue to come in on the Under, so I’ll wait to buy this one.
I’ll post the number I get in the PredictEm forum.