Pacers vs Bucks Prediction & Expert Pick

Indiana Pacers (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (15-6 SU, 9-12 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 7th, 5:00 PM (ET)

Where: T-Mobile Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Ind +4.5/Mil -4.5

Total: 255

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +155/-186

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Jalen Smith (Out) Knee

Bucks

• Jae Crowder (Out) Groin
• Pat Connaughton (Out) Ankle

Recent Form

As they take on the Bucks, the Pacers are hoping to stay above .500, which they are currently at 11-8. When playing on the road, the Pacers are 4-3 this season, compared to their 7-5 home record.

When playing on the road, the Bucks are 5-5 compared to their 10-1 home record. Overall, the Bucks are 15-6 and have gone 2-1 in their last three games.

The Historicals

Across the previous five head-to-head meetings between the teams, both Indiana and Milwaukee have an ATS record of 2-2-1. The Bucks hold the edge in average point differential at +3 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 5-0, with the teams combining for an average of 263 points per game.

Analysis

In their latest game, Indiana’s offense looked good, scoring 122 points against the Celtics. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 45.7% and made 17/21 free throws. Leading the team in scoring was Tyrese Haliburton with 26 points. Buddy Hield also added 21 points for the Pacers.

The Pacers’ defense is presently ranked 29th in the league, allowing an average of 125.2 points per contest.

Indiana’s defense is currently forcing 12.1 turnovers per game, which is 4th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 4th in blocked shots, with an average of 6.3 rejections per game.

In their recent matchup, the Bucks offense ended with 146 points against the Knicks. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 60.4% and made 23 threes. Leading the Bucks in scoring vs. the Knicks was Giannis Antetokounmpo with his 35 points. Damian Lillard also added 28 points for the Bucks.

Facing Indiana, the Bucks aim for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 118.3 points allowed per game (24th).

On two-point field goal attempts, the Bucks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.8% and allowing 35.9% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Indiana has averaged 144 points per game while allowing 141. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Milwaukee has a 1-2 record in their last three home games. In this stretch, they averaged 120 points per game while allowing 121. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• As the betting underdog, the Pacers have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both teams are coming off impressive wins in their quarterfinal matchups, with the Pacers pulling off an upset over the Celtics and the Bucks dominating the Knicks. It appears that the Bucks offense is rolling right now, and they should be able to punch their ticket to the tournament championship game. I like Milwaukee to cover at -4.5.