Pacers vs. Bucks: Point Spread Prediction for Friday’s Game

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: Ind +5/Mil -5

Total: 237

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +173/-207

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• James Wiseman (Out) Achilles
• Aaron Nesmith (Out) Ankle
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Andrew Nembhard (Out) Knee
• Jarace Walker (Questionable) Illness
• Ben Sheppard (Questionable) Oblique

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
• Ryan Rollins (Out) Shoulder

At 8:00 ET, the Pacers (+173) will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (-207) in a divisional matchup. Indiana is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference, while Milwaukee sits 11th.

The Bucks (-5) are favored to win and have won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 237 points.

Recent Form

The Pacers fell to 6-9 on the season after a 130-113 road loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. Indiana, who entered the game as +6 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 243, exceeding the O/U line of 232.5 by 10.5 points.

Indiana trailed 30-23 after the 1st quarter and 62-53 at halftime. A rough 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 36-24, left them down 98-77 going into the 4th. Despite winning the final quarter 36-32, the Pacers couldn’t close the gap.

The Bucks improved to 6-9 on the season with a 122-106 win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Playing at home, Milwaukee entered the game as -8.5 point favorites and covered the spread. The total score of 228 points fell short of the O/U line of 239.

A key moment in the game was a 16-0 run by the Bucks, which extended their lead from 33-30 to 49-30. Although the Bulls outscored Milwaukee 33-29 in the 3rd quarter, the Bucks held Chicago to just 16 points in the 4th to seal the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Indiana has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Milwaukee. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +6 points per game in favor of the Pacers. A combined average of 226 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

In Wednesday’s loss to the Rockets, the Pacers shot 53% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just five threes at a 22.7% clip. Quenton Jackson led the way with 24 points, shooting 83.3%, while Pascal Siakam added 21 points, 16 of which came in the 2nd quarter.

T.J. McConnell contributed 17 points, with six coming in the 4th quarter. Jackson also scored 9 points in the 3rd and added six more in the final period.

The Pacers couldn’t slow down the Rockets on Wednesday, giving up 130 points in the loss. Indiana allowed 30 points in the 1st quarter, 32 in the 2nd and 4th, and 36 in the 3rd.

Indiana did limit Houston’s three-point shooting, holding them to 12 made threes on 33% shooting. The Rockets went to the line 33 times, making 24 free throws. The Pacers had 33 defensive rebounds but allowed 13 offensive boards, while also recording seven steals and nine blocks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 41 points and nine rebounds on 70.8% shooting led the Bucks to a win over the Bulls, with Milwaukee shooting 55% from the field. Brook Lopez added 21 points, hitting 75% of his shots, while Damian Lillard contributed 20 points and ten assists despite shooting just 41.2%.

The Bucks connected on 13 threes at a 36.1% rate, with AJ Green chipping in 18 points, including 11 in the 1st quarter. Giannis dominated the 3rd quarter with 25 points, while Lillard added 7 in the 4th.

Despite giving up 33 points in the 3rd quarter, the Bucks’ defense tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 16 points to secure the win over the Bulls. Milwaukee gave up 106 points on 46% shooting from the field.

The Bucks sent the Bulls to the free-throw line only 7 times, where they hit all their attempts. Milwaukee also gave up 17 threes at a 37% clip. The Bucks finished with 35 defensive rebounds, seven steals, and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 107 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last three games at home, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 107 points per game in this stretch.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-6-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Indiana is just 1-3 in their last four games, and all the losses in this stretch have come by 10 points or more. The Pacers are going to need to try to find a way to weather the storm with all these injuries, but are now facing a Bucks team that appears to have turned a corner. Players like Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard have proven to play well vs Milwaukee, but without them, I see Milwaukee rolling tonight. I’m taking the Bucks to win and cover at -5.