Pacers vs. Bucks Pick & Predictions for Game 5

Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 46-38 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (49-33 SU, 37-49 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 30th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Ind -4/Mil +4 (Save BIG $ by betting games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS!)

Total: 214.5

Money Line: Indy -179/Milw +148

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Back
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Doubtful) Calf
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• Patrick Beverley (Probable) Oblique
• Damian Lillard (Doubtful) Achilles

Game five of this first-round Eastern Conference series between the Pacers and Bucks is set for 9:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. TNT is carrying this one on TV, and the Pacers are up 3-1 in the series. If Indiana wins this game, they move on to the second round. The Pacers are favored by four points and are -179 on the money line. The Bucks are +148, and the over/under line is at 214.5 points.

The Pacers were 10-point favorites in the most recent game of this Bucks vs. Pacers series, and they easily covered the spread with a 126-113 win. Indiana was tied with the Bucks at 33-33 after the first quarter, but they outscored Milwaukee 34-31 in the second and 31-21 in the third. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 214.5 points, and the teams easily surpassed that with 239 combined points.

Myles Turner had a huge game for the Pacers, scoring 29 points while knocking down seven threes. Tyrese Haliburton added 24 points, and the Pacers hit 22 threes as a team. On the other side, Brook Lopez had 27 points for the Bucks, followed by 25 points from Khris Middleton.

Recent Form

Indiana has won three straight games and is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Central Division, they are in 3rd place.

The Pacers have been favored in 46 of their 82 games this season and have a record of 28-18 in those games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 22-24, and they are 22-19 ATS on the road.

On average, Indiana’s games have finished with 242.8 points this season, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 214.5. The team’s O/U record for the season is 46-40.

In their last game against the Bucks, the Pacers won 126-113 and covered the spread (-10). The combined scoring in the game was 239 points.

In their last game against the Pacers, the Bucks lost by a score of 126-113. This loss extended their losing streak to three games. Milwaukee was a 10-point underdog in that game.

As the underdog, the Bucks have a scoring differential of -9.6 points per game. Today, they are getting 4 points as the underdog. This season, they are 5-13 as the underdog.

Milwaukee’s O/U record for the season is 44-42, and the over has hit in each of their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 235 points.

Overall, the Bucks are 49-33 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 34-18 and 10-7 against Central Division opponents.

Milwaukee’s ATS record for the season is 37-49, and they are 20-24 ATS at home. At home, the Bucks have an average scoring margin of +6.0 points per game.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Pacers. In these matchups, Indiana has averaged 121 points per game, while allowing 115. In these contests, they averaged a combined 236 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring team, at 123.3 points per game. They have been above the league average in 75.6% of their games this season. The Pacers are also the league’s top shooting team, hitting 50% of their shots from the field. Their two-point field goal percentage of 58% is also the best in the league.

Pascal Siakam has been playing well for the Pacers of late, averaging 26.2 points and 9.6 rebounds over his last five games. In these games, he hit 58.8% of his shots from the field. Myles Turner has also been hot, averaging 25.6 points per game in his last five games. Over this stretch, he hit 52.6% of his threes.

The Indiana Pacers have had a tough time defensively this season, allowing 119.9 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NBA. On the road, they have been even worse, giving up 121.2 points per game, which is 28th in the league.

Despite their struggles, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 81.7% of games vs. Indiana. Overall, they are the top three-point shooting defense in the NBA.

On the glass, the Pacers are 28th in rebounds per game and defensive rebounds per game. However, they have been effective blocking shots, ranking 8th in the league.

Indiana has done a good job of avoiding fouls this season, ranking 1st in personal fouls per game.

In their last five games, the Pacers have given up 112.6 points per game, which is 18th in the league during that span.

One area where Indiana has struggled is at the free-throw line, as they are 30th in made free throws allowed per game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for the Bucks, as he is dealing with a calf injury. This season, he is averaging 30.4 points and 11.5 rebounds. Over his last five games, Khris Middleton has averaged 24.4 points on 48.9% shooting. He also averaged 7.6 rebounds and 5 assists in that stretch. Brook Lopez has averaged 17 points per game in his last five games while hitting 2.2 threes per contest.

Milwaukee is 4th in the league in scoring this season, at 119 points per game. Their home scoring average of 120.6 points per contest is 5th in the NBA. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Bucks are 5th in both attempts and makes. They have hit 37% of their threes this year, which is 7th in the league.

Coming into tonight’s game, the Bucks are 21st in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.4. At home, they are giving up 114.6 points per contest, which is 19th in the league.

So far this season, opposing teams have scored more than their season average in 65.9% of their games vs. Milwaukee.

On the defensive glass, the Bucks are 2nd in the NBA in defensive rebounds per game at 35.6.

One area where they have struggled is in the steals department, as they are 28th in the league in steals per game at 6.8.

From a field goal percentage standpoint, Milwaukee is 14th in the NBA at 47.1%. They are also 13th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.5%.

Over their last five games, the Bucks have given up 115.8 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.

In terms of free throws, Milwaukee is 13th in made free throws allowed per game at 21.4.

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 113 points per game.
• In their last ten games at home, the Bucks have a straight up record of 2-8 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have a strong record vs the spread going 2-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 1-2.
• The Pacers have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Although the Bucks have shown some fight in this series without Giannis Antetokounmpo and more recently Damian Lillard in game four, their season is about to come to an end tonight. Indiana has way too much firepower offensively, and Myles Turner creates a huge problem for the Bucks. Turner’s ability to stretch the floor has put Milwaukee center Brook Lopez in a tough spot because he is an elite rim protector, but he has left Turner wide open way too often. I view this as a steal at -4, and would hammer the Pacers to cover in this one.

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