Pacers vs. Bucks Betting Preview: Game 4 Odds, Analysis & Prediction

Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 39-44 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (48-34 SU, 43-40 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 27th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Ind +4.5/Mil -4.5

Total: 226

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +159/-190

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Bennedict Mathurin (Questionable) Abdomen

Bucks

• Tyler Smith (Questionable) Ankle

At 9:30 ET, the Pacers (+159) will take on the Bucks (-190) in a Central Division matchup. Indiana is 50-32 and 4th in the East, while Milwaukee is 48-34 and 5th in the conference.

Oddsmakers have the Bucks as 4.5-point favorites at Fiserv Forum. The over/under line for the game is 226 points. TNT will have the TV coverage.

Recent Form

Indiana’s season record dropped to 50-32 after a 117-101 road loss to the Bucks on Friday. The Pacers, who entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 218, falling short of the 229-point line.

Indiana went on a 10-0 run to take control in the 2nd quarter, but the Bucks responded with a dominant 3rd quarter, outscoring the Pacers 39-18. Milwaukee continued to pull away in the 4th, outscoring Indiana 31-26.

The Bucks improved to 48-34 this season with a 117-101 win over the Pacers on Friday. Milwaukee, favored by 5.5 points, covered the spread with a 16-point victory. The game’s total score of 218 points fell short of the 229-point over/under line.

After a 10-0 run by the Pacers put them ahead 49-41, Milwaukee responded by dominating the 3rd quarter, outscoring Indiana 39-18. They entered the 4th quarter with an 86-75 lead and closed out the game by outscoring the Pacers 31-26 in the final period.

The Historicals

Through the last five head-to-head matchups, neither team has gotten a leg up on the spread, each sitting at 2-2-1. In addition, the games have been competitive, with an average of just 1 point per game separating the teams. A combined average of 229 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In their 117-101 loss to the Bucks, the Pacers shot 43.3% from the field and hit 13 threes at a 31.7% clip. Pascal Siakam led the way with 28 points, connecting on three threes at a 75% rate, while Aaron Nesmith added 18 points, hitting four threes at 50% efficiency.

Tyrese Haliburton also made four threes, finishing with 14 points and 10 assists. Nesmith scored 10 of his points in the 2nd quarter, while Siakam added 8 in the 4th.

The Pacers put together a strong defensive effort in the 1st and 2nd quarters, allowing just 26 and 21 points, respectively. However, they struggled in the 3rd, giving up 39 points, and allowed 31 more in the 4th, leading to a 117-101 loss to the Bucks. Indiana held Milwaukee to 47% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers allowed the Bucks to hit 15 threes at a 36% clip. Milwaukee also went 18/22 from the free-throw line. Indiana gave up 10 offensive rebounds while recording eight steals and four blocks.

In their win over the Pacers, the Bucks put up 117 points, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Gary Trent Jr. each scoring 37. Giannis shot 73.7% from the field, while Trent hit nine threes at a 75% rate, finishing with a 68.8% overall shooting percentage.

Milwaukee made 15 threes, shooting 36.6% from deep and 47.2% overall. Trent scored 18 points in the 3rd quarter, while AJ Green added 9 of his 12 points in the 4th, hitting four threes at a 50% rate.

Defensively, the Bucks were solid against the Pacers, giving up 101 points in the win. They allowed 26 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters but tightened up in the 3rd, holding Indiana to just 18 points.

Milwaukee limited the Pacers to 43% shooting, including 31% from three-point range, with Indiana hitting 13 threes. The Pacers also went 10/13 from the free-throw line. The Bucks grabbed 38 defensive rebounds, gave up seven offensive boards, and added eight steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Indiana has played well in their previous five road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 125 points per game while allowing 119. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Through their last five home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 114 points per game while allowing an average of 116. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-3 ATS.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog; the Pacers have a straight-up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 7-3 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee is looking to tie this series up tonight, and they are favored by -4.5 heading into game 4. Giannis has been on a tear in this series, but the difference in these games is the role players for Milwaukee. In games 1 and 2, he didn’t get enough help from his supporting cast. But in game 3, Gary Trent Jr. went off for 9 3’s and led the Bucks to a win. However, the concern for Milwaukee is that Damian Lillard has really struggled offensively, and aside from Bobby Portis, they aren’t getting production from anywhere else. On the other side, the Pacers are very well-rounded on the offensive end. I think Indiana covers this line at +4.5 tonight.