Pacers vs. Bucks Best Bets: Expert NBA Picks & Analysis

Indiana Pacers (37-28 SU, 30-33 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (37-28 SU, 30-33 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 15th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: Ind +5.5/Mil -5.5

Total: 235.5

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +178/-213

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Kevin Porter Jr. (Probable) Ankle
• Tyler Smith (Questionable) Back

At 8:00 ET, the Pacers (+178) will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (-213). Indiana is currently 5th in the Eastern Conference, while Milwaukee is 4th. The over/under line for this game is 235.5 points.

Indiana has won two straight games and is 37-28 on the season. The Bucks are also 37-28 and are favored by 5.5 points.

Recent Form

The Pacers improved to 37-28 on the season with a 112-100 win over the 76ers on Friday. Indiana, who were -13 point favorites, didn’t cover the spread, winning by 12. The game’s total of 212 points fell well short of the 232.5 O/U line.

After the 76ers went on a 12-0 run early, Indiana responded by outscoring Philadelphia 29-25 in the 2nd quarter. The Pacers took control in the 2nd half, outscoring the 76ers 31-24 in the 3rd and 34-25 in the 4th to seal the win.

The Bucks improved to 37-28 on the season with a 126-106 win over the Lakers on Thursday. Playing at home, Milwaukee was favored by six points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 232 points went over the 226.5-point line.

The Lakers went on a 10-0 run, extending their lead from 50-40 to 60-40, but Milwaukee responded by outscoring L.A. 31-19 in the third quarter. The Bucks led 102-82 going into the fourth, where both teams scored 24 points each.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-1-1 in the previous five matchups vs Indiana. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +4 points per game in favor of the Bucks. Indiana and Milwaukee averaged a combined 226 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Pascal Siakam’s 27 points on 60% shooting led the Pacers to a win over the 76ers, with Myles Turner adding 18 points and seven rebounds. Aaron Nesmith contributed 16 points, hitting three threes at 50% efficiency.

Indiana made just 10 threes, shooting 28.6% from deep, but finished with a 49.4% overall field goal percentage. Siakam scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Nesmith added 8 points in the 4th.

The Pacers put together a strong defensive performance, holding the 76ers to just 100 points. They were consistent throughout, giving up 26 points in the 1st quarter, 25 in the 2nd and 4th, and just 24 in the 3rd.

Indiana limited Philadelphia’s three-point shooting, allowing just 11 made threes on 28% shooting. The 76ers went to the line 22 times, making 15 free throws. The Pacers also recorded six steals and four blocks.

In their 126-106 win over the Lakers, the Bucks connected on 17 threes, shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 24 points, adding 12 rebounds and nine assists, while Brook Lopez contributed 23 points, hitting 75% of his shots from deep.

Damian Lillard also added 22 points and 10 assists, though he struggled from three, shooting just 25%. Kevin Porter matched Lillard’s 22 points, scoring 9 in the 2nd quarter, while Giannis put up 12 points in the 3rd.

Despite a rough 2nd quarter where the Bucks gave up 34 points, they tightened up defensively in the 3rd, allowing just 19 points to help secure a 126-106 win over the Lakers. Milwaukee held Los Angeles to 43% shooting from the field.

The Bucks sent the Lakers to the line 18 times, where they made 15 free throws. Milwaukee also allowed 15 three-pointers on 37% shooting. The Bucks grabbed 41 defensive rebounds, gave up five offensive boards, and added nine steals and eight blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 1-9 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 114 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-6-1 while averaging 111 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 5-5.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though Milwaukee is at home, and the Pacers are playing on back-to-back nights, I think the oddsmakers have this line set too high in favor of the Bucks. The Pacers always give the Bucks problems, and Milwaukee has a tendency to not follow through when in advantageous situations. Even though Milwaukee looked good vs the Lakers in their last game, I see Indiana playing the Bucks tough, as these teams jockey for the 4th seed in the East. I like Indiana +5.5.