Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick & Predictions

Orlando Magic (47-35 SU, 55-33 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34 SU, 40-46 ATS)

When: Sunday, May 5th, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, OH, Cleveland

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Orl +3/Cle -3

Total: 194.5

Money Line: Orlando Magic +132/-158

Notable Injuries

Magic

• Gary Harris (Questionable) Hamstring

Cavaliers

• Jarrett Allen (Questionable) Rib
• Ty Jerome (Out) Ankle
• Dean Wade (Out) Knee
• Craig Porter Jr. (Out) Ankle

Game seven of this Eastern Conference first-round series between the Magic and Cavaliers is set for 1:00 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. ABC is carrying the game on TV, and the Cavaliers are favored by three points. The over/under line is 194.5, and the Cavaliers are -158 on the money line compared to the Magic at +132. The series is tied at three games apiece, and the winner of this game moves on to the next round.

Orlando picked up a 103-96 win over the Cavaliers in the most recent game of this series. The Magic were 4.5-point favorites heading into the game and covered the spread. The game also fell just short of the over/under line of 200.5 points, with the teams combining for just 199 points.

Orlando’s defense really stepped up in the 4th quarter, holding the Cavaliers to just 18 points. Donovan Mitchell had a big game for the Cavaliers, scoring 50 points. The Magic were led by Paolo Banchero’s 27 points.

Recent Form

In their last game against the Cavaliers, the Magic won by a score of 103-96. The O/U line for that game was 200.5 points, and they covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites.

Orlando is 47-35 this season and is currently in 5th place in the Eastern Conference. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 32-20 compared to 15-15 against the West.

As the underdog, the Magic have gone 18-29 this season and are 26-21 against the spread as the underdog. They have lost their last four games as the underdog straight-up and are 3-8 straight-up as the underdog on the road.

This season, the Magic have an average scoring differential of -3.8 points per game on the road. Their ATS record on the road is 24-20, and they are 18-26 straight-up on the road.

The Magic’s O/U record for the season is 40-48, and their games have averaged 217.3 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 194.5 is lower than all of their previous games this season.

The Cavaliers are 40-16 as the favorite this season and are favored by 3 points today. In their last three games as the favorite, they have gone 3-0 straight-up and 26-29 ATS.

Cleveland’s ATS record for the season is 40-46, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last four games. At home, they are 21-23 ATS compared to 19-23 on the road.

In the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers are currently in 4th place with a record of 48-34. In the Central Division, they are in 2nd place.

The Cavaliers’ O/U record for the season is 43-44-1, and their games have averaged a combined 221 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 194.5, and their games have averaged 221.3 points.

In their last game against the Magic, the Cavaliers lost by a score of 103-96. The O/U line for that game was 200.5, and they were 4.5-point underdogs going into the game.

Cleveland’s ATS record for the season is 21-23 at home, and they are 29-15 straight-up at home. Currently, they are favored to win their 4th straight game at home.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Magic have averaged 105 points per game compared to 93 for Cleveland. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Orlando. In these contests, they averaged a combined 198 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Orlando comes into the game as the NBA’s top team in free-throw attempts per game, at 26.7 per contest. Despite getting to the line at a high rate, they are just 26th in scoring, at 110.5 points per game. Overall, the Magic have averaged 107.1 points per game on the road and 112.5 points per game at home. The Magic are also near the bottom of the league in three-point shooting, at 9.6 threes per game.

Paolo Banchero has averaged 25.4 points per game over the Magic’s last five games while shooting 47.1% from the field. In these games, he also averaged 7.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Over this stretch, Franz Wagner is averaging 21.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting. Jalen Suggs is averaging 16 points per game in his last five games while hitting 50.9% of his shots.

When it comes to defense, the Magic have been one of the best teams in the league, giving up just 107.5 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the NBA. On the road, they have been even better, allowing just 111.0 points per game, which is 7th in the league.

Over their last five games, the Magic have been even stingier, giving up just 93.6 points per game, which is 3rd in the NBA.

One area where the Magic have been particularly strong is defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.1% from beyond the arc, which is 3rd in the NBA. In terms of three-pointers made per game, they are also 3rd in the league, giving up just 11.3 made threes per game.

Donovan Mitchell comes into the game averaging 26.4 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 45.9% from the field. Darius Garland has hit 44% of his threes in his last five games and has averaged 2.2 made threes per game in that stretch. Overall, the Cavaliers are 10th in made threes per game and 11th in attempts.

For the season, the Cavaliers are 23rd in scoring at 112.6 points per game. Their home scoring average is 113.4 points per contest. Cleveland’s three-point shooting percentage of 36% is 19th in the league. Jarrett Allen is averaging 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds for the season, but he is out tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the NBA’s best defensive teams this season, ranking 7th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.6. They have been especially tough at home, where they have given up just 109.2 points per contest, good for 6th in the NBA.

One area where the Cavs have been strong all season is defending the three-point line, as they are 10th in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 36.6%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 8th in the league in three-point percentage allowed at 33.3%.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 68.3% of their games vs. the Cavs. In terms of rebounds, Cleveland is 17th in the NBA at 43.3 per game and 20th in blocked shots at 4.6 per contest.

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Orlando has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 0-3 while averaging 90 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Cavaliers offense has averaged 100 points per game while allowing an average of 117. Cleveland posted an overall record of 1-9 while going 2-8 ATS.
• As the betting underdog, the Magic have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Orlando posted a straight-up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Cavaliers have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their, straight up record was 4-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The home team has won every game of this series so far, and there is no reason to expect that to change for game seven. Another thing to note is that the only game that really came down to the wire was game five. With these two trends in place, I’m taking Cleveland to cover at -3.