Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns Pick ATS for Dec 31, 2023

Orlando Magic (19-12 SU, 21-10 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (16-15 SU, 11-20 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 31st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: AZFa

Point Spread: Orl +6/Pho -6

Total: 229.5

Money Line: Orlando Magic +197/-244

Notable Injuries

Magic

• Gary Harris (Questionable) Calf
• Joe Ingles (Out) Ankle
• Markelle Fultz (Questionable) Knee
• Jonathan Isaac (Questionable) Hamstring
• Wendell Carter Jr. (Questionable) Knee

Suns

• Damion Lee (Out) Knee
• Josh Okogie (Probable) Ankle
• Nassir Little (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Through 31 games, the Magic find themselves 4th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 19-12. Orlando has put together back-to-back wins and will look to make it three in a row as they take on the Suns as 6-point underdogs. So far, the Magic have been the underdog in 19 of their 31 games and have gone 9-10.

On the road, Orlando is 8th in the East with a road record of 7-8. The average scoring margin for the Magic on the road this season is -4.9 points per contest. Their average scoring differential when coming into games as the underdog is -2.1 points.

So far, the Magic have an average over/under line of 226 for their games and have gone 15-16 in relation to the OU lines. In their previous two games, the Magic have finished below the OU lines, leading to two straight unders.

Orlando’s ATS records for various situations include being 17-9 as the underdog, 12-4 on the road, and 21-10 overall.

As the Suns get ready to host the Magic, they are favored by 6 points and sit 8th in the West on a two-game winning streak. In the Pacific Division, Phoenix is 3rd with a record of 16-15.

Against the spread, the Suns are 11-20 this season. When playing at home, they have gone 8-9 straight up and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games.

So far, the Suns have been the favorite in 22 of their 31 games and have a scoring margin of +3.2 points per game in those games. Their straight-up record as the favorite is 13-9, and they have gone 7-15 ATS when favored.

The over/under record in their games is currently 18-13, and the over has hit in each of their last two games. The average over/under line in their games this season is 229.1 points, and today’s line is just above that at 229.5. The Suns have gone 12-4 with lower over/under lines than today’s line and have a record of 5-9 when the OU line has been higher than 229.5.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Magic have an ATS mark of 4-1. Yet, the Suns have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 111 compared to Phoenix at 108. Orlando and Phoenix averaged a combined 219 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Magic scored 117 points, which is right in line with their season average of 113 points per game. Overall, the Magic are shooting 47% from the field this season, which is 14th best in the league. When it comes to three-point shooting, the Magic are last in both percentage and total makes.

In the current season, the Magic defense has excelled, sitting 5th in the NBA by allowing 110.6 points per game. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Magic squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 53.8% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.2% from downtown.

In their most recent game, the Suns had a strong offensive showing, scoring 133 points vs. the Hornets. This is higher than their average of 115.5 points per game this season. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring vs. the Hornets with 35 points, while Jusuf Nurkic added 24 points.

This season, the Suns’ defense is the 16th ranked defense in the NBA at 16th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 64.5% of their games. Phoenix’s defense is currently forcing 14.4 turnovers per game, which is 25th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 1st in blocked shots, with an average of 6.6 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• Orlando has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 119 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
• Across the Suns last ten home games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 114. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• The Magic have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Suns have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 1-2 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

After hitting a rough patch recently, the Suns have rattled off two straight wins and are starting to get healthier. Coming in as the 6-point favorites, I like Phoenix to not only win this one straight-up but cover the spread vs. the Magic.