Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder (28-13 SU, 28-13 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (30-11 SU, 21-19 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 20th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: BSN

Point Spread: OKC +3/Min -3

Total: 230.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +126/-149

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Luguentz Dort (Questionable) Illness

Timberwolves

• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

At 8:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (-149) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (+126) in a Northwest Division matchup. The Timberwolves currently sit atop the Western Conference standings, while the Thunder are second in the West.

The Timberwolves are favored by 3 points and are riding a four-game win streak. The over/under line for this matchup is set at 230.5. Tipoff will be at the Target Center in Minneapolis and the game can be seen on BSN.

Recent Form

The Thunder have a 24-17 O/U record this season, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line of 230.5 is lower than their season average of 236.3 points per game.

Oklahoma City’s last game against the Jazz had an O/U line of 246 points, and they combined for 263 points in a 134-129 win. The Thunder were favored by 3 points in that game.

In the Western Conference, the Thunder are currently in 2nd place with a record of 28-13. On the road, they are 12-8 straight-up and 12-8 against the spread.

As underdogs, the Thunder are 8-7 this season and 10-5 ATS. On average, they have a scoring differential of +1.3 points per game as underdogs.

Against Western Conference teams, the Thunder are 16-10 compared to 12-3 in non-conference play. This season, they have an ATS record of 28-13.

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is now 22-19 after their last two games have gone over the line. Today’s O/U line is set at 230.5, and the Timberwolves have seen an average of 220.9 points per game this season.

In their last game against the Grizzlies, Minnesota won by a score of 118-103. The O/U line for that game was set at 215 points. The Timberwolves were favored by 12 points in that game.

Minnesota has won four straight games and currently has a record of 30-11, which is the best in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-6 and 5-1 against other teams in the Northwest Division.

At home, the Timberwolves have an average scoring margin of +10.3 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 11-8, and they have covered the spread in three straight games at home.

Minnesota’s record as the favorite this season is 26-6, and they are favored by 3 points today. Against the spread, they are 16-15 as the favorite and 21-19 overall.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between Thunder and Timberwolves 0 points per game separating the teams. Oklahoma City has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. In these contests, they averaged a combined 228 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Thunder are one of the top teams in the league, averaging 122.2 points per game (3rd). However, their scoring numbers drop slightly on the road to 119.8 PPG (4th).

So far this season, the Thunder have outscored the NBA scoring average in 75.6% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 10th in the league at 99.9 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Thunder are one of the top teams in the league. They are 2nd in field goal percentage (50%) and lead the NBA in true shooting percentage. From three-point range, they are 2nd in shooting percentage (39%).

At present, the Thunder’s defense is ranked 14th, allowing 114.1 points per game. In their previous matchup vs. the Jazz, the Thunder’s defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 55% leading to 129 points.

So far this season, the Timberwolves have been an above-average offensive team, ranking 21st in the league with 113.5 points per game. However, they have actually been better on the road, averaging 114.0 points compared to 112.8 at home.

Minnesota has been an efficient shooting team overall, ranking 6th in the league in field goal percentage at 49%. They have also been one of the better three-point shooting teams, making 38% of their attempts (3rd).

When it comes to pace, the Timberwolves are 24th in the league at 97.9 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are right in the middle of the pack at 15th with 26.3 per game.

Coming into today’s game, the Timberwolves defense is giving up an average of 107.4 points per contest. In terms of takeaways, the Timberwolves are causing 14.4 turnovers per game, ranking 28th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 7th in rejections, averaging 6 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 118 points per game.
• Across the Timberwolves last ten home games, the team averaged 113 points per game while allowing 112. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 5-5 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Thunder vs. Wolves game is a big one in the Western Conference standings, as the Thunder have a chance to pull within one game behind Minnesota for the top spot. However, Minnesota has only two losses at home this season and is in the middle of a four-game winning streak. I’m going with the Wolves to pick up the win and cover.