Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview | March 24/24

Oklahoma City Thunder (49-20 SU, 41-28 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (45-25 SU, 31-39 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 24th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: NBA

Point Spread: OKC +3/Mil -3

Total: 231.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +124/-149

Notable Injuries

Thunder

None

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Hamstring
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle

At 7:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-149) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (+124) in a non-conference matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by 3 points.

Both teams are first in their respective divisions, and the Thunder (+124) have won four straight games. The over/under line for this game is currently set at 231.5 points.

Recent Form

Oklahoma City is currently in 1st place in the Western Conference with a record of 49-20. In the West, they are 31-15 against other conference opponents and 18-5 against the East.

On the road, the Thunder are 21-13 this season and have won three straight games away from home. Against the spread, they are 19-15 on the road and 11-5 as underdogs.

The Thunder’s O/U record for the season is 36-32-1, and the under has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line of 231.5 is lower than their season average of 233.6 points per game.

In their last game, the Thunder beat the Raptors by a score of 123-103. The O/U line for that game was 230 points, and the Thunder covered the spread as 16.5-point favorites.

Milwaukee’s O/U record this season is 35-35, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 231.5, and their games have averaged 237.8 points per game.

In their last game against the Nets, the Bucks won by a score of 115-108. The O/U line for that game was 221.5, and Milwaukee was favored by 10.5 points.

This season, the Bucks have an average scoring differential of +6.9 points per game at home. Against the spread, they are 16-19 at home and 26-32 overall as the favorite. Today, they are favored by 3 points.

Overall, the Bucks are 45-25 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they are 31-14 and 10-7 in their division. At home, they are 28-7 compared to 17-18 on the road.

Milwaukee’s last three games as the favorite have resulted in wins, but they are just 3-9 straight-up as the underdog. Against the spread, they are 5-7 as the underdog and 26-32 as the favorite.

The Historicals

The Bucks have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 13 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 219 points in these games.

Analysis

So far this season, the Thunder have been one of the top offensive teams in the NBA, averaging 120.7 points per game (3rd). On the road, they have scored 118.7 points per game (4th).

When it comes to shooting efficiency, the Thunder are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, hitting 39% of their attempts from beyond the arc (1st). Overall, they are shooting 50% from the field (2nd).

When it comes to pace, the Thunder are 11th in the NBA at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are 13th in the league, with an average of 26.9 per contest.

Coming into today’s game, the Thunder’s defense is giving up an average of 112.9 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Thunder squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 51.9% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.7% from downtown.

At home, the Bucks are ranked 3rd in the league in scoring at 123.0 points per game. Overall, they are 4th in scoring at 120.6 points per game. Milwaukee has outscored the NBA average in 65.7% of their games this season.

In terms of pace, the Bucks are 5th in the league at 100.2 possessions per game. When it comes to shooting efficiency, Milwaukee is 7th in field goal percentage (49%).

One area where the Bucks have excelled is getting to the free-throw line. They lead the NBA in free throw attempts per game at 24.8. In terms of three-point shooting, Milwaukee is 5th in three-point percentage (37%).

Currently, the Bucks’ defense holds the 22nd rank in the NBA, allowing 117.2 points per game. The Bucks’ defense is coming off a game in which they held the Net’s offense to just 47.3% shooting. Overall, they gave up 108 points to Brooklyn.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 123 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Oklahoma City posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a strong straight-up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

With Giannis and Khris Middleton listed as probable, the Bucks are favored by three at home over Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s four-game winning streak has them at the top of the Western Conference standings, but three of these games came against the lowly Jazz, Grizzlies, and Raptors. I’m going to be taking the Bucks in this one at -3.