Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Predictions – Best Bet

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 52-39 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 55-38 ATS)

When: Saturday, May 18th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: OKC +3.5/Dal -3.5 (Bet on games at -105 instead of -110 at Betanysports!)

Total: 208.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +141/-170

Notable Injuries

Thunder

None

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee/Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

The Mavericks are looking to close out this first-round series with the Thunder on Saturday night. Dallas is up 3-2 heading into game six and they are favored by 3.5 points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 208.5 points, and the Thunder are +141 on the money line compared to -170 for the Mavericks. Saturday’s game is being played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas and is set to tip off at 8:00 PM ET. ABC is carrying this game on TV.

Thanks to a big second quarter, the Mavericks came away with a 104-92 road win over the Thunder in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Thunder were favored by 4.5 points, but the Mavericks easily covered that spread. As for the over/under line, the 196 combined points fell 17 points short of the over/under line of 213.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, finishing with 30 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds, while Luka Doncic recorded a triple-double with 31 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds for the Mavericks. As a team, the Thunder shot just 42.5% from the field and made only 10 threes, while the Mavericks shot 52.6% and hit 14 threes.

Recent Form

The Thunder are currently 57-25 on the season, which is the best record in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they went 21-9 compared to 36-16 against the West.

Oklahoma City has gone 23-22 against the spread on the road and 27-18 straight-up. As the underdog, they are 13-10 ATS on the road.

Their O/U record for the season is 46-44-1, and the under has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 229.7 points.

In their most recent game, the Thunder lost to the Mavericks by a score of 104-92. The O/U line for that game was 213 points, and OKC was favored by 4.5 points.

For the season, the Thunder are 11-12 as the underdog and 13-10 ATS. Today, they are 3.5-point underdogs, and their ATS record as the underdog is 13-10.

In their games this season, the Thunder have averaged an O/U line of 230.4 points. Today’s line is 208.5, and they have gone 90-0 in games with higher O/U lines.

Dallas has a record of 50-32 on the season, which has them in 5th place in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 against the East.

At home, the Mavericks are 28-18 on the season and have an average scoring margin of +3.7 points per game. As the favorite, they are 42-16 and have an ATS record of 37-21 at home.

On the road, the Mavericks are 29-18 for the season and have an average scoring differential of +1.1 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 31-16.

In their last game against the Thunder, the Mavericks won 104-92 as 4.5-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was 213 points.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 41-52, and the under has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 230.4 points per game.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Thunder and Mavericks have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Dallas. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 207 points per game.

Analysis

Offensively, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. However, they have not been as productive lately, as they have scored below their season average in their last seven games. Looking at their road scoring average, the Thunder are 6th in the league, at 115.6 points per contest. Oklahoma City has outscored the league average in 70.7% of their games this season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder offense of late, averaging 31.4 points per game in his last five games. In these games, he hit 49.6% of his shots from the field. Jalen Williams has averaged 16 points per game in his last five games and 5.2 assists. For the season, Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points and 14.8 points in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league all season long. They come into tonight’s game ranked 9th in the NBA, allowing just 111.2 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 103.8 points per game, which is the 5th best mark in the league during that span.

One area where Oklahoma City has been particularly strong is in the steals department. On the season, they lead the NBA in steals at 8.5 per game. They have also been a force in the paint, ranking 1st in the league in blocked shots at 6.6 per contest.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Thunder have been a bit vulnerable, allowing opponents to shoot 36.1% from behind the arc, which is 21st in the league. However, opposing teams have not been able to take advantage of this weakness, as they have made fewer threes than their season average in 52.4% of their games vs. Oklahoma City.

Coming into the game, the Mavericks are the 8th ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. They have been a little better at home, averaging 117.2 points per contest on their home floor. Dallas is also 10th in the league in home scoring. The Mavericks are 3rd in three-point attempts this season, getting up 39.5 attempts per game. Despite the high volume of threes, they are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage.

Luka Doncic is probable for the Mavericks and is averaging 23.8 points over his last five games to go along with 10.6 rebounds and 8.4 assists. In these games, he averaged 2.8 made threes per game. Over his last five games, P.J. Washington has averaged 19.4 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 47.7% from downtown.

When it comes to defense, the Mavericks have been middle of the pack, ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 114.0. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 104 points per game, which is 7th in the league over that stretch.

One area where they have struggled is getting steals, as they are 25th in the league at 6.9 per game. However, they have done a good job of protecting the rim, ranking 14th in blocked shots at 5 per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have made more threes than their season average in 62.2% of games against the Mavericks. This could be an area where the Thunder look to exploit, as they are 16th in three-point percentage allowed at 36.5%.

Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 106 points per game.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Home court advantage hasn’t played a huge role in this series, as the Thunder have won once in Dallas and the Mavs have taken two games in OKC. Now, the Mavericks have a chance to close out the series at home, and I’m counting on them taking care of business tonight. Right now, they are -3.5-point favorites, and I see them covering the spread in game six. Aside from game one, Dallas’ defense has been really good vs. the Thunder, and I expect that to continue tonight.

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