Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Predictions

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 51-38 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 54-37 ATS)

When: Monday, May 13th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: TNT

Point Spread: OKC +1/Dal -1

Total: 213.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -102/-118

Notable Injuries

Thunder

None

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Knee/Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

The Mavericks will be hosting the Thunder at 9:30 PM ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. This game is the fourth game of this Western Conference first-round series, and the Mavericks are currently leading the series 2-1. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Mavericks are favored by 1 point. The over/under line is 213.5 points, and the money line odds are -118 for the Mavericks and -102 for the Thunder.

The most recent game of this Thunder-Mavericks series went in favor of the Mavericks, as they picked up a 105-101 win. The Thunder were 1.5-point underdogs heading into the game, so the Mavericks covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 217.5 points, and the teams fell 11.5 points short of that total.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, finishing with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 27 points, and Luka Doncic added 22 points and 15 rebounds. Both teams shot just 33.3% from three-point range, with the Mavericks making 11 threes and the Thunder making just 10.

Recent Form

The Thunder have gone 2-4 against the spread as underdogs, and they are currently 1-point underdogs for today’s game. As the underdog, Oklahoma City has a scoring differential of -1.5 points per game.

Oklahoma City’s last two losses have come against the spread, and they are 51-38 ATS for the season. On the road, they are 22-22 ATS compared to 29-16 at home.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 46-42-1, and their games have averaged 230.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 213.5, and 86 of their games have had higher over/under lines.

In their most recent game, the Thunder lost to the Mavericks by a score of 105-101. This improved their record to 57-25, which is currently the best in the Western Conference. In the Western Conference, they are 36-16 and 12-4 against other teams in the Northwest Division.

Dallas has a record of 50-32 this season and is currently 5th in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 against the East.

At home, the Mavericks are 28-17 straight up and 24-21 against the spread. As the favorite, they are 42-15 this season and have won three straight games as the favorite. The team’s ATS record as the favorite is 37-20.

On average, Dallas games have finished with 231.2 points per game, which is higher than today’s over/under line of 213.5. This season, their games have averaged an over/under line of 232.8.

In their last game against the Thunder, the Mavericks won 105-101 as 1.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and Dallas covered the spread.

Overall, the Mavericks are 54-37 against the spread this season and have covered in their last two games. At home, they have an ATS record of 24-21 and are 30-16 ATS on the road.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Mavericks have gone 3-2, but the Thunder actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Oklahoma City has averaged 117 points per contest, while allowing 104. A combined average of 221 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Offensively, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. But they have been below average in terms of scoring efficiency, as they have been below the league average in 37.8% of their games. Looking at their pace, the Thunder are 10th in the league, averaging 99.7 possessions per contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.2 points per game over his last five games, while also averaging 6.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 19.1 points for the season and 19.8 over his last five games.

On the defensive end of the floor, the Thunder are currently 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.4. They are also 1st in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 45.2%. Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been even stingier, holding opponents to just 98.6 points per contest.

One area where the Thunder have struggled defensively is defending the three-point line. On the season, they are 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.0%. However, over their last five games, they have been much better in that regard, ranking 8th in three-point percentage allowed at 33.6%.

Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 8th ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. Their average of 117.7 points per game at home is 9th in the league. The Mavericks are 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes this season but are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage.

Luka Doncic is questionable for the Mavericks, as he is dealing with a knee/ankle injury. For the season, he is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists. Over his last five games, Doncic has averaged 26.6 points, 8.8 assists, and 9 rebounds. P.J. Washington has hit 3.6 threes per game over his last five games on a three-point shooting percentage of 47.4%.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Mavericks have been average this season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% from beyond the arc. On the year, opposing teams have made 13.0 threes per game vs. Dallas.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 32.8% shooting from deep. However, during that same stretch, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, allowing 19 made free-throws per game.

On the season, Dallas is 17th in points allowed per game at 114.4. In terms of field goal percentage, opposing teams are shooting 47.3% from the field vs. the Mavericks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 101 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Dallas has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 3-7.
• Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into game four, the Mavs are the slight favorite at -1 after rattling off two straight wins over the Thunder. Aside from Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were propelled by a huge game from P.J. Washington on Saturday. On the other side, the Thunder will need someone other than Shai Gilgeious-Alexander to step up, as no one else scored mored than 16 points in game three. For this one, I’m taking the Mavericks to pick up the win and like them on the money line.