Nuggets vs. Warriors: NBA Expert Picks & ATS Predictions for Monday Night

Denver Nuggets (43-25 SU, 32-35 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (39-28 SU, 35-31 ATS)

When: Monday, March 17th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den +5.5/GS -5.5

Total: 236

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +163/-196

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Calf/Ankle
• Nikola Jokić (Questionable) Ankle/Elbow
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Ankle
• Christian Braun (Probable) Foot
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Questionable) Back
• Brandin Podziemski (Out) Back
• Quinten Post (Questionable) Ankle/Illness

At 10:00 ET, the Nuggets (+163) will take on the Warriors (-196) in a Western Conference matchup. Golden State is favored by 5.5 points, and the over/under is set at 236.

Golden State has won seven straight games and is currently 6th in the Western Conference. Denver is 3rd in the West and 2nd in the Northwest Division. The game will be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco and can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

The Nuggets fell to 43-25 on the season after a 126-123 loss to the Wizards on Saturday. Denver, who were -12 point favorites at home, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 249 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 241.

Denver started strong, leading 44-30 after the 1st quarter, but the Wizards chipped away, winning the 2nd quarter 33-28 and the 3rd 32-23. An 11-0 run by Washington in the 4th put them ahead 106-90, and despite a late push, the Nuggets couldn’t recover.

The Warriors improved to 39-28 on the season with a 97-94 win over the Knicks on Saturday. Playing at home, Golden State was favored by 6.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 191, well below the 228.5-point line.

Golden State led 32-31 after the 1st quarter and extended their lead by outscoring the Knicks 22-19 in the 2nd quarter. New York edged the Warriors 22-21 in the 3rd, but Golden State held onto their 75-72 lead by matching the Knicks 22-22 in the final period.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Golden State has gone 4-1 vs the spread. However, the Nuggets actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +7 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 231 points in these games.

Analysis

Nikola Jokić poured in 40 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in the Nuggets’ 126-123 loss to the Wizards, scoring half of his points in the first quarter. He shot 53.3% from the field, while Jamal Murray added 24 points, seven assists, and three threes at 37.5% from deep. Russell Westbrook contributed 22 points and 11 assists, hitting four threes at a 50% rate.

Westbrook scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, while Jokić managed just 4. Denver shot 50.5% overall, connecting on 12 threes at 35.3%.

The Nuggets couldn’t slow down the Wizards on Saturday, giving up 126 points in a 126-123 loss. Denver allowed at least 30 points in every quarter, including 33 in the 2nd. Washington shot 48% from the field.

Denver struggled to defend the three-point line, where the Wizards hit 19 threes on 42% shooting. The Nuggets sent Washington to the line 17 times, where they made 15 free throws. Defensively, Denver grabbed 32 defensive rebounds but allowed 13 offensive boards. They also recorded 12 steals and eight blocks.

In their win over the Knicks, the Warriors managed just 97 points, shooting 39.8% from the field. Their three-point shooting was below average, hitting 31.7% with 13 made threes.

Stephen Curry led the way with 28 points, 12 of which came in the 3rd quarter. Moses Moody added 18 points, including 7 in the 4th quarter, and hit four threes at a 50% rate.

Despite a shaky start, the Warriors tightened up defensively after the 1st quarter, holding the Knicks to just 19 points in the 2nd and 22 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Golden State limited New York to 94 points on 43% shooting.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors gave up just nine threes, with the Knicks shooting 37% from deep. Golden State also sent New York to the line 13 times, where they hit 11 free throws. The Warriors finished with seven steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nuggets’ last three road games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 121. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Golden State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 118 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.
• Although the Warriors have a strong straight-up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-3-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After taking down the Thunder on March 10th, the Nuggets have struggled a bit of late. Right now, they have lost 2 of their last three games, including a disappointing loss to the Wizards on Saturday. While the Warriors have shown they can win in various ways, holding New York to just 94 points on Saturday, while scoring 130 in back to back games before that. I like how Golden State is playing right now, and as long as Curry is able to play through his back injury, I’m taking the Warriors to cover.