Nuggets vs. Warriors Moneyline Pick: NBA Betting Analysis (April 4)

Denver Nuggets (47-30 SU, 35-41 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (45-31 SU, 39-35 ATS)

When: Friday, April 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Den -1.5/GS +1.5

Total: 233.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -121/+102

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Illness/Calf
• Nikola Jokić (Probable) Ankle
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Hamstring
• Christian Braun (Probable) Foot
• Peyton Watson (Questionable) Knee
• Julian Strawther (Questionable) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Warriors

• Gary Payton II (Out) Thumb

The Denver Nuggets (-121) are on a two-game losing streak and are favored by 1.5 points over the Golden State Warriors (+102). The over/under line for this Western Conference matchup is 233.5 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Golden State (45-31) is on a four-game winning streak and is currently 5th in the Western Conference. Denver (47-30) is 3rd in the West and 2nd in the Northwest Division.

Recent Form

The Nuggets fell to 47-30 on the season after a 113-106 home loss to the Spurs on Wednesday. Denver, favored by 2.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 219 points came in under the O/U line of 228.

Denver started slow, trailing 33-21 after the 1st quarter. They matched the Spurs in the 2nd quarter and surged ahead with a strong 3rd quarter, outscoring San Antonio 31-22. An 11-0 run gave them a 96-88 lead, but they couldn’t hold on, as the Spurs outscored them 25-21 in the 4th.

The Warriors improved to 45-31 this season with a 123-116 win over the Lakers on Thursday. Golden State, who entered the game as +1 point underdogs, covered the spread with the victory. The total score of 239 points went over the pre-game line of 230.5 by 8.5 points.

Golden State took control early, leading 60-47 at halftime after a strong 2nd quarter. The Lakers outscored the Warriors in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but Golden State’s 11-point lead going into the final period was enough to secure the win.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Golden State has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Nuggets actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +8 points per game. Denver and Golden State averaged a combined 232 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In Wednesday’s loss to the Spurs, the Nuggets shot just 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three-point range, though they did hit 13 threes overall. Russell Westbrook led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists, connecting on three threes at a 30% clip.

Hunter Tyson added 18 points, making three threes, while Jalen Pickett contributed 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, hitting three threes at 50% efficiency. Westbrook scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter, while Pickett added 6 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up 33 points in each, but they tightened up in the 3rd, allowing just 22 points. They also held the Spurs to 25 points in the 4th, but it wasn’t enough to avoid a 113-106 loss.

Denver allowed San Antonio to shoot 44% from the field and 37% from three, where the Spurs hit 17 threes. The Nuggets sent the Spurs to the line 13 times, where they made 10 free throws. Denver finished with 44 defensive rebounds, gave up eight offensive boards, and recorded seven steals and four blocks.

Stephen Curry’s 37 points and six assists led the Warriors to a 123-116 win over the Lakers, with Curry scoring 16 points in the 3rd quarter. Brandin Podziemski added 28 points, hitting eight threes at an 80% rate, with 13 points in the 2nd quarter.

The Warriors made 19 threes, shooting 45.2% from deep and 47.6% overall. Jonathan Kuminga contributed 18 points and nine rebounds, and Moses Moody chipped in 13 points, scoring 4 in the final quarter.

Defensively, the Warriors were solid in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up just 22 and 25 points, respectively. However, they struggled in the 4th, allowing 39 points, though they still managed to secure the win. Overall, Golden State allowed the Lakers to shoot 45% from the field.

The Warriors gave up 18 three-pointers on 38% shooting from deep. They also sent the Lakers to the line 23 times, where they hit 20 free throws. On the boards, Golden State allowed 14 offensive rebounds while recording five steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• The Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

We nailed last night’s bet by taking the Warriors to win vs the Lakers, and tonight, they are slight underdogs once again as they host the Nuggets. Denver has lost two straight, and this line is a reflection of Golden State playing on back-to-back nights. It looks like Denver is getting healthier, as Aaron Gordon and Jokic are now listed as probable, but Jamal Murray is still questionable. Despite the quick turnaround, I’m going back to the well, taking the Warriors on the money line.