Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: NBA Predictions 11/1/24

Denver Nuggets (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

When: Friday, November 1st, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den +4/Min -4

Total: 219.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +153/-183

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Knee
• Vlatko Cancar (Probable) Ankle
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Timberwolves

• No Injuries Reported

At 9:30 ET, the Timberwolves (-183) will host the Nuggets (+153) in a Western Northwest Division matchup. The Timberwolves (-4) are favored by 4 points over the Nuggets, and the over/under line is currently set at 219.5.

This game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

The Nuggets evened their record at 2-2 after a 144-139 win over the Nets on Tuesday. Denver picked up the road victory, but they didn’t cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites. The game’s total of 283 points was well over the 218-point line.

Denver fell behind early, trailing 40-27 after the 1st quarter. They chipped away at the lead, outscoring Brooklyn 36-32 in the 2nd and 33-27 in the 3rd. Heading into the 4th quarter down 99-96, the Nuggets finished strong, winning the final period 29-26.

The Timberwolves dropped to 2-2 on the season after a 120-114 home loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday. Minnesota, favored by 4 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 234, exceeding the pre-game line of 220 by 14 points.

Minnesota started strong, leading 34-26 after the 1st quarter. They went on a 10-0 run to extend their lead from 61-60 to 70-61, but Dallas responded by outscoring the Timberwolves 35-25 in the 2nd quarter and 32-23 in the 3rd. Minnesota made a push in the 4th, outscoring Dallas 32-27, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 93-82 deficit they faced entering the final period.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Nuggets hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -1 points per game. Denver and Minnesota averaged a combined 201 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Nuggets put up 144 points in their win over the Nets, shooting 51.7% from the field and hitting 13 threes at a 48.1% clip. Nikola Jokic led the way with 29 points, 18 rebounds, and 16 assists, shooting 56.2% from the floor.

Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray each added 24 points, with Gordon shooting 72.7%. Murray struggled from three, hitting just 28.6%, but contributed 4 points in overtime.

Despite a rough start defensively, giving up 40 points in the 1st quarter, the Nuggets tightened up as the game went on, allowing 32 in the 2nd, 27 in the 3rd, and 26 in the 4th. Still, they allowed the Nets to shoot 51% from the field.

Denver also struggled to defend the three, with Brooklyn hitting 20 threes at a 38% clip. The Nets went 21/27 from the free-throw line. The Nuggets finished with 34 defensive rebounds, gave up seven offensive boards, and recorded three steals and four blocks.

The Nuggets shot 51.7% from the field and knocked down 13 threes at a 48.1% clip in their 144-139 win over the Nets. Nikola Jokic led the way with 29 points, 18 rebounds, and 16 assists, while Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray each added 24 points.

Gordon shot 72.7% from the floor, and Murray hit two threes, though he shot just 28.6% from deep. Jokic scored 8 points in the 4th quarter and added four more in overtime.

Defensively, the Timberwolves struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 35 and 32 points, respectively, in their 120-114 loss to the Mavericks. Minnesota allowed Dallas to shoot 48% from the field.

The Timberwolves had a tough time defending the three, as the Mavericks hit 16 threes at a 41% clip. Minnesota sent Dallas to the line 18 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Timberwolves finished with five steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 115 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 106 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• The last ten games that Denver was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 6-4 straight up.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both the Timberwolves and Nuggets come into this one with 2-2 records, and Minnesota is the -4 point favorite at home tonight. The Wolves are coming off a loss to the Mavericks at home, while the Nuggets have two wins in a row but just squeaked by the Raptors and Nuggets. Look for the Wolves to handle business tonight in a nationally televised game. I’m taking Minnesota at -4.