Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Best Bet

Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 41-47 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 46-42 ATS)

When: Sunday, May 12th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Den +2.5/Min -2.5

Total: 204.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +121/-144

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Abdomen
• Reggie Jackson (Questionable) Calf
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Timberwolves

None

Tip-off for game four of this first-round Western Conference matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves is set for 8:00 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. Heading into Sunday’s matchup, the Timberwolves are up 2-1 in the series. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and they are the 2.5 point favorites at home. The over/under line is at 204.5, and the money line odds are -144 for the Timberwolves and +121 for the Nuggets.

Denver picked up a 27-point win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series, winning by a score of 117-90. The Nuggets were 3.5-point underdogs heading into the game, so they also covered the spread. Denver’s defense was excellent in this one, holding Minnesota to just 43.7% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point range. The 90 points allowed by the Nuggets was well below their season average of 117 points allowed per game.

Offensively, the Nuggets shot the ball well, knocking down 53.8% of their shots from the field. Nikola Jokic had a double-double with 24 points and 14 rebounds, while Jamal Murray also added 24 points. Heading into the game, the over/under line was set at 205 points, and the teams combined for 207 points.

Recent Form

Today, the Nuggets are 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the Timberwolves. As the underdog, Denver has gone 6-6 straight-up and 7-5 against the spread this season.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 36-52-2, and their games have averaged a combined 223.1 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 204.5, and their games have averaged 224.8 points per game.

In their last game, the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves by a score of 117-90. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 205 points.

Overall, the Nuggets finished the season with a record of 57-25, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they went 33-19 and 24-6 against non-conference opponents.

Denver’s ATS record for the season is 41-47, and they have covered the spread in four straight games as the underdog. On the road, they are 19-24 ATS compared to 22-23 ATS at home.

Minnesota has a record of 46-42 against the spread this season, going 20-24 ATS at home and 26-18 ATS on the road. As the favorite, they are 31-34 ATS and 15-8 ATS as the underdog.

The Timberwolves have been favored in 66 of their 82 games this season and have a scoring differential of +8.4 points per game in those games. As the favorite, they are 49-17 straight-up.

As for their O/U record, Minnesota is 46-43 this season. Today’s line of 204.5 is lower than their season average of 220.2 points per game. On average, their games have finished with 218.9 points.

In their last game, the Timberwolves lost to the Nuggets by a score of 117-90. They were favored by 3.5 points in that game and are favored by 2.5 points today.

Overall, Minnesota is 56-26 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 and 37-15 against the West.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Nuggets and Timberwolves have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Minnesota. Denver and Minnesota averaged a combined 206 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per contest. Their scoring average at home is 116.5 points per game, compared to 111.3 on the road. The Nuggets are 4th in team field goal percentage this season, at 49%.

Over his last five games, Nikola Jokic has averaged 26 points, 14.4 rebounds and 9.8 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 20.6 points in that stretch, while Jamal Murray is also averaging 20.6 points per game this year. For the season, the Nuggets are averaging 115.5 points per game.

On the season, the Nuggets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 6th in points allowed per game at 109.1. Denver has also been tough on opposing offenses from beyond the arc, ranking 2nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better on defense, ranking 9th in points allowed at 105.4. During that stretch, they have also been able to limit opponents’ three-point shooting to just 34%.

Overall, Denver has done a good job of forcing teams into tough shots, ranking 5th in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53%. They have also been able to get stops without fouling, ranking 23rd in personal fouls.

Minnesota comes into the game as the 18th ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. They are also 23rd in pace, averaging 97 possessions per contest. The Timberwolves have been a good three-point shooting team this year, as their three-point percentage of 38% is the 3rd best mark in the league.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 33 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 57% from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 64% of his threes in his last five games and is averaging 21.8 points per game for the season.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best team in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.1 points per game. At home, they have been even stingier, giving up just 103.6 points per contest.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. Minnesota. Additionally, teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 76.8% of games vs. the Timberwolves.

When it comes to shooting, Minnesota has been the best team in the NBA at defending the field goal, allowing opponents to shoot just 45.1% from the floor. They have also been very good at defending the three-point line, ranking 4th in three-point shooting percentage allowed.

Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Through their last ten home games, Minnesota has an ATS record of just 8-2. However, their overall record was 8-2 while averaging 112 points per game.
• The last ten games that Denver was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 5-5 straight up.
• The last ten games that Minnesota was favored, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 7-3 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Not only did the Nuggets win game three, they made a statement that this series is far from over. Even after blowing out the Wolves in game three, Denver is the +2.5 point underdogs. Look for the Nuggets to come out hot yet again, and I like them to even this series a two games apiece and recommend taking them on the money line.