Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Expert ATS Pick & Betting Preview

Minnesota Timberwolves (43-32 SU, 35-39 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (47-28 SU, 35-39 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 1st, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Min +3.5/Den -3.5

Total: 230.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +136/-161

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Groin

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Illness/Calf
• Nikola Jokić (Probable) Ankle
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Hamstring
• Christian Braun (Probable) Foot
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

The Timberwolves (+136) are currently on a two-game win streak and are 7th in the Western Conference. They will be on the road against the Nuggets (-161), who are 3rd in the West and have also won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 230.5 points.

This Northwest Division matchup will be played at Ball Arena in Denver and will tip-off at 10:00 ET. TNT will have the television coverage.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves improved to 43-32 on the season with a 123-104 win over the Pistons on Sunday. Playing at home, Minnesota was favored by 7.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 227 points narrowly exceeded the 224.5-point line.

After a slow start, falling behind 34-20 in the 1st quarter, the Timberwolves turned things around. They outscored Detroit 34-26 in the 2nd quarter, 38-23 in the 3rd, and 31-21 in the 4th, pulling away after entering the final period with a 92-83 lead.

Denver improved to 47-28 on the season with a dominant 129-93 win over the Jazz on Friday. Playing at home, the Nuggets were favored by 19 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 222 points fell short of the 239.5 O/U line.

Denver set the tone early, holding Utah to 15 points in the 1st quarter. Although the Jazz edged the Nuggets 32-31 in the 2nd quarter, Denver clamped down defensively in the 3rd, allowing just 18 points. A 12-0 run in the 4th helped the Nuggets pull away, as they outscored Utah 43-28 in the final period.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Timberwolves. In these matchups, Minnesota has averaged 116 points per game while allowing 95. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 211 points in these games.

Analysis

Julius Randle led the Timberwolves with 26 points and eight rebounds in their 123-104 win over the Pistons, shooting 50% from the field. Anthony Edwards added 25 points, with 20 coming in the 3rd quarter, and hit four threes at a 40% rate.

Rudy Gobert contributed 19 points and 25 rebounds, shooting 50% from the field. The Timberwolves made 12 threes, shooting 38.7% from deep, and finished with a 47.3% overall field goal percentage.

After a shaky start, the Timberwolves tightened up defensively, allowing just 70 points over the final three quarters to secure a 123-104 win over the Pistons. Minnesota gave up 34 points in the 1st quarter but responded by holding Detroit to 26 points in the 2nd, 23 in the 3rd, and just 21 in the 4th.

The Timberwolves limited the Pistons to 35% shooting from the field, including 31% from beyond the arc, where Detroit hit 12 threes. Minnesota also recorded nine blocks in the game.

The Nuggets shot 57.8% from the field in their win over the Jazz, with Nikola Jokić leading the way with 27 points and 14 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. added 20 points, hitting four threes at a 57.1% clip, while Russell Westbrook contributed 17 points on 60% shooting.

Jokić scored 13 of his 27 points in the 2nd quarter, while Porter and Westbrook each added 8 points in the 4th. Christian Braun also scored 8 of his 16 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Nuggets put on a defensive clinic against the Jazz, holding them to just 93 points on 35% shooting. Denver was especially strong in the 1st and 3rd quarters, where they allowed just 15 and 18 points, respectively.

Denver’s perimeter defense was outstanding, limiting Utah to 7 made threes on 17% shooting. The Nuggets also racked up 12 steals and 13 blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 108 points per game.
• Although Denver has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 116 points per game in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 1-9 in their last ten games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Keep an eye on Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray’s status for tonight’s matchup, as both are listed as questionable heading into their matchup vs Minnesota. Right now, the Nuggets are favored by -3.5 at home, but if they have Gordon and Murray available, I see them winning this one by more than that. Monitor the injury report before betting, but I’m leaning toward Denver to win and cover.