Nuggets vs. Lakers Picks & Predictions 3/2/24

Denver Nuggets (41-19 SU, 26-32 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (33-28 SU, 27-34 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 2nd, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den +1/LAL -1 (Bet your NBA picks at -105 odds at BAS Sportsbook! Save $$$!)

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Nuggs -104/Lake Show -117

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Personal
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Ankle
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Braxton Key (Out) Personal

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Achilles
• LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Cam Reddish (Probable) Ankle
• Colin Castleton (Out) Wrist

At 8:30 ET, the 3rd ranked Denver Nuggets (+1) will travel to Crypto.com Arena to take on the 10th ranked Los Angeles Lakers (-1). The Nuggets (41-19) have won 5 straight, while the Lakers (33-28) have won 2 in a row. Tip-off for this Western Conference matchup will be on ABC.

The over/under line is set at 228.5 points. Denver is currently -104 on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is -117. The Lakers are favored by 1 point.

Recent Form

As the Nuggets look to extend their win streak to six games, they are currently 3.5-point underdogs against the Lakers. This season, Denver has been the underdog in just nine of their 60 games, going 3-6 in those games.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 21-38-1, and the under has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 224.6 points, which is lower than today’s line of 228.5.

The Nuggets’ last game was a 103-97 win over the Heat, and they were favored by 6.5 points going into the game. The combined scoring total of 200 points was well below the O/U line of 214.5.

Currently, the Nuggets are 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 41-19. In the West, they have gone 23-13 against other teams in the conference and 18-6 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 17-14 and are 12-18 ATS. Their average scoring differential on the road is -1.1 points per game.

For the season, the Nuggets have gone 26-32 ATS and are 22-27 ATS as the favorite. Their ATS record as the underdog is 4-5, and they have covered the spread in two straight road games.

The Lakers are favored by 1 point today and have gone 13-19 ATS as the favorite this season. Their ATS record at home is 14-16, and they have failed to cover in their last two home games.

This season, the Lakers are 27-34 ATS overall, including a 13-18 ATS record on the road. At home, their ATS record is 14-16.

In their win over the Wizards, the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points but won by just three (134-131). The O/U line for that game was 244 points.

The Lakers’ O/U record for the season is 33-28, and their games have averaged 234.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 228.5.

Los Angeles is currently 10th in the Western Conference with a record of 33-28. In the Pacific Division, they are in 5th place. Against other Western Conference teams, the Lakers are 22-19 and 11-9 in non-conference games.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 114 points per game, while allowing 107. In these contests, they averaged a combined 221 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

This season, the Nuggets are 18th in the NBA in scoring at 114.4 points per game. However, they have been better at home, averaging 118.5 points compared to 110.5 on the road. So far, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 46.7% of their games.

Denver’s offense is 7th in the league in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also one of the top teams in two-point shooting, hitting 56% of their attempts. However, they are just 27th in three-point shooting at 36%.

When it comes to pace, the Nuggets are 29th in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are 5th in the league with an average of 29 per game.

So far this season, the Nuggets defense has been performing well, ranking 6th in the NBA at 110.2 points allowed per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Nuggets are forcing 11.9 per game, which is 6th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 11th in blocked shots at 5.5 per game.

When playing at home, the Lakers are averaging 118.2 points per game (10th). Overall, they are 12th in the NBA at 117.2 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, the Lakers are 3rd in the league at 49%. They are also 8th in true shooting percentage.

Despite being 5th in pace, the Lakers are 30th in three-point attempts (30th). They are also 28th in three-point makes at 11.4 per game. However, they are 6th in two-point field goal percentage at 56%.

So far this season, the Lakers have outscored the NBA scoring average in 47.5% of their games. In terms of free throws, they are 9th in makes and 6th in attempts. When it comes to offensive rebounds, the Lakers are 30th in the league.

Coming into the game, the Lakers’ defense has finished two straight games with an increased number of points allowed. Overall, they are 20th in the league at 117.6 points per game allowed. Opponents are hitting 54.1% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 37.5% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Denver has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 112 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Lakers have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Los Angeles posted a straight-up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Lakers hold a comfortable lead over the Jazz for the final spot in the play-in tournament, they need to stay hot if they are going to try and make a push for a better seed and possibly work their way out of having to compete in the play-in tournament. But tonight, they run into a Nuggets team that is competing for the one seed in the Conference and have rattled off five straight wins. I’m going with Jokic and the Nuggets at +1. Note: One of the most important facets of sports betting (besides being able to pick a winner) is getting the best line and paying the lowest price for your odds. We highly suggest that you take a minute to learn about reduced juice sports betting! It’ll save you THOUSANDS of dollars and it’s FREE!