Nuggets vs. Kings Betting Preview: ATS Pick and Key Matchup Insights

Denver Nuggets (13-10 SU, 9-13 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (13-13 SU, 11-15 ATS)

When: Monday, December 16th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Den -1/Sac +1

Total: 238.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -111/-107

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Dario Saric (Out) Ankle
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Hamstring
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Christian Braun (Questionable) Back
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Kings

• Trey Lyles (Out) Calf
• Kevin Huerter (Doubtful) Shoulder
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

At 10:00 ET, the 5th-ranked Nuggets (-111) will travel to Sacramento to take on the 12th-ranked Kings (-107). Denver is currently favored by 1 point, and the over/under line is set at 238.5.

Both teams are currently on winning streaks, with the Nuggets having won their last two games and the Kings having won their last three. This Western Conference matchup can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

With a 120-98 win over the Clippers on Friday, the Nuggets improved to 13-10 this season. Denver, favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread at home. The total points for the game were 218, falling short of the 227.5 O/U line.

Denver started strong, leading 29-22 after the 1st quarter, but the Clippers went on an 18-0 run, stretching their lead from 38-29 to 56-29. The Nuggets responded by outscoring the Clippers 35-22 in the 3rd quarter and 37-29 in the 4th, pulling away for the win.

The Kings evened their record at 13-13 with a 111-109 win over the Pelicans on Thursday. Sacramento, who were -7 point favorites, didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 220, falling short of the 232.5 O/U line.

Key to the win was a 14-0 run early in the game, as the Kings extended the score from 7-4 to 21-4. They took control in the 3rd quarter, outscoring New Orleans 38-28, but the Pelicans made a push in the 4th, outscoring Sacramento 26-20.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Sacramento has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 219 points per game.

Analysis

The Nuggets shot 54.5% from the field in their win over the Clippers despite making just ten threes at a 34.5% clip. Jamal Murray led the way with 20 points, while Michael Porter Jr. added 17, including 12 in the 3rd quarter.

Nikola Jokic contributed 16 points, hitting two threes on 100% shooting from deep. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson each scored 14, with Watson adding 9 points in the 4th quarter.

The Nuggets put together a strong defensive performance on Friday, holding the Clippers to just 98 points. Denver limited Los Angeles to 22 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters while giving up 25 in the 2nd and 29 in the 4th. Overall, the Nuggets held the Clippers to 44% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Clippers made 14 threes on 34% shooting. Denver also sent Los Angeles to the free-throw line 18 times, where they made 10. The Nuggets controlled the boards, allowing just five offensive rebounds, and came up with 15 steals.

In their win over the Pelicans, the Kings shot just 40.2% from the field and made only ten threes at a 30.3% clip. Domantas Sabonis was a bright spot, hitting 73.3% of his shots and finishing with 32 points and 20 rebounds.

DeMar DeRozan added 29 points, knocking down three threes without a miss. He scored 16 points in the 3rd quarter, while Keegan Murray contributed 8 of his 18 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Kings were consistent, allowing 26 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters and 29 in the 2nd, to hold the Pelicans to 109 points. Sacramento gave up 28 points in the 3rd quarter, with New Orleans shooting 47% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pelicans hit 14 threes at a 37% clip. The Kings sent New Orleans to the line 20 times, where they made 17 free throws. Sacramento recorded 12 steals and two blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Nuggets offense has averaged 116 points per game while allowing an average of 112. Denver posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 5-5 ATS.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Sacramento has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Kings have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Sacramento posted a straight-up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
• Although the Nuggets have a strong straight-up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs. the spread going 2-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

With Jamal Murray being listed as probable, I really like the Nuggets in this spot, as -1 point favorites. The Kings are going to look to push the pace and try to neutralize Jokic by getting up and down the court. However, I see Jokic actually putting together a big game and carrying the Nuggets to a win. I’m going DEN at -1.