Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4

by Joe Jensen | Last updated Jun 9, 2023 | nba

Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 55-44-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 46-57-2 ATS)
When: Friday, June 9th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami
TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den -3.5/Mia +3.5
Total: 210.5
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -160/+134

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

Heat

Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 19-22 and a win percentage of 46%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 55-44-1 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 4-1 in their past 5 games and 4-1 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS.

In their preceding game, the Nuggets overpowered the Heat, earning a 109-94 win as 3-point favorites. Jamal Murray led the way for the Nuggets, putting up 34 points on 54.5% shooting. The Nuggets not only secured the victory but also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 46-57-2 vs the spread. In Miami’s last 5 games, the Heat have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 6-4 ATS.

In their most recent game, Miami was unable to come home with a victory against the Nuggets, losing by a score of 109-94. Despite Jimmy Butler leading the team with 28 points, the Heat were unable to overcome their status as 3-point underdogs. The Heat also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the 109-94 win over the Heat. The Nuggets’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 3.5 point favorite. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 4-1 vs the Heat. Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Nuggets have an average scoring margin of +6 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. Denver and Miami averaged a combined 216 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

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Analysis

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Denver has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Denver comes into the game ranked 5th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

As the Nuggets prepare for today’s game, Nikola Jokic is their leading scorer, with an average of 24.5 points per game. This season, Jokic has a field goal percentage of 63.2%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jamal Murray, who is averaging 20.0 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game while averaging 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo has an average of 20.4 points per game on a field goal percentage of 54.0%. The team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, with an average of 22.9 points per game.