Nuggets vs. Clippers Pick – Take the Points

Denver Nuggets (11-6 SU, 6-11 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS)

When: Monday, November 27th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Den +4.5/LAC -4.5

Total: 218.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +161/-194

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Out) Heel
• Jamal Murray (Out) Hamstring
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Clippers

• Mason Plumlee (Out) Knee
• Brandon Boston Jr. (Out) Quadriceps

Recent Form

Looking at the Nuggets’ previous ten games, they are 5-5 and face the Clippers with an overall mark of 11-6. The Nuggets have a 3-6 record on the road this season, compared to their 8-0 record when playing at home.

With a win over the Nuggets, the Clippers will improve their record back to .500, as they are currently 7-8 overall this season. Throughout their 15 games, the Clippers have posted a 6-6 record against Western Conference opponents while going 1-2 in non-conference matchups.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 119 points per game, while allowing 106. In these contests, they averaged a combined 225 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

The Nuggets recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 132 points against the Spurs. This output exceeded their season average of 113.1 points per game. In terms of offense, the Nuggets have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, putting them 3rd in the NBA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 14th in percentage and 20th in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Nuggets’ defense is positioned 8th in the NBA, permitting 109.2 points per game.

In terms of two-point field goal attempts, the Nuggets defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 52.3% while allowing 35.8% from downtown.

The Clippers offense is coming off a game where they scored 107 points against the Mavericks. They posted a field goal percentage of 43.2% and connected on 8 threes. In terms of offense, the Clippers have a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, putting them 18th in the NBA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 15th in percentage and 18th in three-pointers made.

In the current season, the Clippers defense has excelled, sitting 7th in the NBA by allowing 108.1 points per game.

Opponents are hitting 51.8% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 33.4% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nuggets’ last five road games, the team averaged 106 points per game while allowing 113. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-5, while going 1-4 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Clippers have a straight-up record of 2-8 while going 3-7 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 113 points per game in these contests.
• Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Clippers have a straight up record of 4-1, while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even with the Nuggets having played last night and don’t have Aaron Gordon or Jamal Murray, I still them being able to hang around and keep this one close. With the spread sitting at -4.5 in favor of the Clippers, I’m taking the Nuggets ATS (+4.5).