Nuggets vs. Clippers Pick & Predictions 4/4/24

Denver Nuggets (53-23 SU, 34-40 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (47-28 SU, 35-40 ATS)

When: Thursday, April 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Den -3.5/LAC +3.5

Total: 218.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -163/+136

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Foot
• Nikola Jokic (Probable) Hip
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Knee
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Zeke Nnaji (Doubtful) Adductor

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Knee
• Joshua Primo (Out) Ankle

At 10:00 ET, the Denver Nuggets will visit the Los Angeles Clippers in a Western Conference showdown. The Nuggets are currently favored by 3.5 points and have a moneyline of -163. The over/under line for the game is 218.5.

Denver is 53-23 on the season and has won two straight games. The Clippers are 47-28 overall and are currently 4th in the Western Conference standings.

Recent Form

The Nuggets have an O/U record of 30-44-2 this season, and their games have averaged 224.3 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 218.5, which is lower than the season average of 226.1.

Denver’s ATS record for the season is 34-40, and they have failed to cover the spread in three straight road games. Their ATS record on the road is 15-21.

As the favorite, the Nuggets have won two straight games and have a record of 49-17. Today, they are favored by 3.5 points. In these games, Denver has gone 29-35 against the spread.

In their last game against the Spurs, the Nuggets won by a score of 110-105. The O/U line for that game was 223 points, and Denver was favored by 15.5 points going into the game.

Denver is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 53-23. Against Western Conference teams, they are 30-17 and 23-6 in non-conference games.

Today, the Clippers are looking to snap a three-game losing streak as the underdog. Despite being the underdog, they have gone 3-12 straight-up and 4-11 against the spread as the underdog this season. As the underdog, they have an average scoring differential of -8.8 points per game.

In their last game against the Kings, the Clippers lost 109-95. The O/U line for that game was 221.5, and they were getting 3 points as the underdog. This resulted in an ATS loss for the Clippers.

For the season, the Clippers are 35-40-1 on the O/U, and their games have averaged 228.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 218.5, which is lower than their season average of 228.2.

Los Angeles is currently 4th in the Western Conference with a record of 47-28. Against the West, they are 27-19 and 20-9 against non-conference opponents. The Clippers are in 1st place in the Pacific Division.

This season, the Clippers are 35-40 against the spread, including a 16-19 record at home and 19-21 on the road. Their ATS losing streak is at five games at home and two games on the road.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Denver has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous 5 matchups vs Los Angeles. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +5 points per game in favor of the Nuggets. A combined average of 225 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 14th in the league at 114.5 points per game. However, on the road, they are averaging 110.9 points per game (22nd).

Denver has been one of the most efficient teams inside the arc, as they are 2nd in the league in two-point field goals made per game. Overall, they are shooting 49% from the field (5th).

Despite being 3rd in the league in assists, the Nuggets are 28th in pace at 96 possessions per game. In terms of three-point shooting, Denver is 12th in the league at 37%.

Coming into the game, the Nuggets’ defense has finished two straight games with an increased number of points allowed. Overall, they are 6th in the league at 109.8 points per game allowed. The Denver defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.5% of their field goal attempts vs. Denver.

When it comes to scoring, the Clippers are 12th in the league at 116 points per game. At home, they are averaging 115.8 points per game.

Los Angeles has been one of the most efficient teams in the NBA this season, shooting 49% from the field (6th). They are also 5th in true shooting percentage.

One area where the Clippers have excelled is their three-point shooting. They are 3rd in three-point shooting percentage at 38%. Overall, they are 14th in three-pointers made per game.

At present, the Clippers’ defense is ranked 11th, allowing 112.7 points per game. In terms of two-point field goal attempts, the Clipper’s defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 54.0% while allowing 36.9% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 0-3. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 111 points per game.
• Through their last three home games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 108 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Clippers have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 3-7.
• Although the Nuggets have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Nuggets and Clippers matchup features two of the top teams in the Western Conference, as the Nuggets are jockeying with the Timberwolves and Thunder for the top seed in the Conference, while the Clippers are currently in 4th place in the West. The Clippers come into this as +3.5 point underdogs, and they are just 5-5 over their last 10, and they need to get things back on track, as the Mavs and Suns have been playing well right behind them in the standings. However, without Kawhi Leonard, I don’t see the Clippers having enough tonight. I’m taking the Nuggets to win and cover at -3.5.